Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.69
Draw
3.42
Away Win
1.87
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
18'
🟨 José Tavares
David Sousa 🟥
52'
Henrique Araújo 🟨
67'
68'
🟨 Emanuel Moreira
Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira 🟨
83'
90+2'
⚽ Joao Vasconcelos (Lucas Soares)
90+3'
🟨 Joao Vasconcelos
Andre Geraldes 🟨
90+5'
90+7'
🟨 Pedro Ferreira
90+7'
🟨 Gonçalo Paciência
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
5
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
7
17
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
5
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
Ivan Mandić
Geraldes
Kaly
David Sousa
Pedro Rosas
Silvi
L. Ofori
M. El Boukammiri
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
B. Pauwels
Henrique Araújo
Santa Clara (4-3-3)
Lucas França
Lucas Soares
Pedro Pacheco
Emanuel Fernandes
Guilherme Romão
José Luís Rocha Tavares
Pedro Ferreira
Tiago Ribeiro
Vinícius Lopes
Gonçalo Paciência
Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
Player Ratings ?
Casa Pia
KalyD7.1
Felipe SilvaD6.6
SilviM6.5
Santa Clara
João VasconcelosM8.2
Lucas SoaresD7.2
Pedro PachecoD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Santa Clara
Santa Clara rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Santa Clara an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santa Clara stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santa Clara stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Santa Clara stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Santa Clara stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santa Clara have secured two wins from their last five away outings, whereas Casa Pia have suffered four defeats in their last five home matches. Casa Pia have found the net in three of their last five home games but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Santa Clara rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 18 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Casa Pia's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points, while Santa Clara's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Santa Clara.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Casa Pia losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Casa Pia points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Santa Clara
Santa Clara's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Santa Clara win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 21.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.8% → 21.2%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 28.2%
−0.5 pts
Santa Clara win
Latest market chance 50.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
49.5% → 50.6%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Casa Pia
Draw
Santa Clara
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Casa PiaSanta Clara
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
4th
7
Games Played
7
0.57
Points/Game
2.14
0.43
Goals/Game
1.57
2.29
Conceded/Game
0.57
10.0
Shots/Game
12.6
2.8
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Casa Pia at home (7 matches) vs Santa Clara away (6 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
2.67
0.29
Goals/Game
1.33
2.86
Conceded/Game
0.33
0%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Casa Pia
Home form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santa Clara
Away form
D
L
W
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Casa Pia Wins
1
Draws
1
Santa Clara Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Casa Pia0 – 0Santa Clara
Santa Clara1 – 0Casa Pia
Santa Clara2 – 1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0 – 2Santa Clara
Casa Pia2 – 1Santa Clara
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Casa Piavs
Santa Clara
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.10
Goals conceded / game
0.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 38.2%→Latest 40.2%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 43.0%→Latest 44.6%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Casa Pia's 10 matches and 3 of Santa Clara's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?