Benfica vs Guimaraes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio da Luz
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.21
Draw
7.12
Away Win
13.28
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Benfica
Guimaraes
17'
🟨 Tony Strata
Samuel Dahl (Vangelis Pavlidis) ⚽
24'
33'
🟨 Gonçalo Nogueira
50'
🟨 Toni Borevković
Leandro Barreiro 🟨
52'
Tomás Araújo 🟨
55'
57'
🟨 Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
72'
🟨 Balieiro Thiago
Heorhii Sudakov (Claudio Echeverri) ⚽
75'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
23
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
0
11
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
23
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Benfica (4-2-3-1)
Samuel Soares
A. Bah
A. Circati
Tomás Araújo
S. Dahl
L. Barreiro
João Palhinha
Rafa
G. Prestianni
A. Schjelderup
V. Pavlidis
Guimaraes (4-2-3-1)
O. Zych
T. Strata
T. Borevković
Thiago Balieiro
João Mendes
L. Doucet
Gonçalo Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira
Samu
O. Camara
A. Jakupovic
Player Ratings ?
Benfica
S. DahlD8.7
H. SudakovM7.9
Tomás AraújoD7.7
Guimaraes
A. JakupovicF6.7
SamuM6.6
BeniM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Benfica
Benfica rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Benfica a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Guimaraes arrive at this Primeira Liga fixture with a starkly poor away record of five straight defeats in their last five outings, whereas Benfica have secured three victories from two draws without a single loss during their own home run over the same recent period. At home, Benfica have found the net in each of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet once during that identical sample window. Benfica rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Benfica won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Guimaraes's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Benfica's implied win probability has risen by 4.4 percentage points, while Guimaraes's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Benfica a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Benfica unbeaten run
0
Guimaraes points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Benfica
Benfica's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Benfica win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Benfica win
Latest market chance 78.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
74.2% → 78.6%
+4.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
16.7% → 14.3%
−2.4 pts
Guimaraes win
Latest market chance 7.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
9.2% → 7.1%
−2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Benfica
Draw
Guimaraes
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BenficaGuimaraes
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
7
2.29
Points/Game
0.71
3.14
Goals/Game
0.71
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.14
18.3
Shots/Game
16.8
6.1
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Benfica at home (6 matches) vs Guimaraes away (6 matches)
2.67
Points/Game
0.17
1.83
Goals/Game
0.67
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
83%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Benfica
Home form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Guimaraes
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Benfica Wins
4
Draws
1
Guimaraes Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Benfica3 – 0Guimaraes
Guimaraes0 – 3Benfica
Guimaraes0 – 3Benfica
Benfica1 – 0Guimaraes
Guimaraes2 – 2Benfica
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Benficavs
Guimaraes
Recent Scoring Profile
2.90
Goals scored / game
0.60
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.6%→Latest 65.2%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.3%→Latest 47.9%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Benfica's 10 matches and 2 of Guimaraes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?