Benfica vs Alverca Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio da Luz
Mon 02 Nov 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.15
Draw
9.37
Away Win
18.05
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Benfica
Alverca
15'
🟨 Yaya Bojang
Vangelis Pavlidis ⚽ (P)
51'
58'
🟨 Francisco Chiquinho
63'
🟨 Ian Luccas
Clément Lenglet 🟨
65'
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
13
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
4
8
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Benfica (4-2-3-1)
Samuel Soares
A. Bah
Tomás Araújo
C. Lenglet
S. Dahl
F. Aursnes
João Palhinha
D. Lukebakio
G. Prestianni
A. Schjelderup
V. Pavlidis
Alverca (3-4-3)
Matheus Mendes
Y. Bojang
Sergi Gómez
I. James
Zoubdi
Ian Luccas
D. Gui
Francisco Chissumba
Chiquinho
D. Camara
Figueiredo
Player Ratings ?
Benfica
Samuel SoaresG8.0
V. PavlidisF7.8
Tomás AraújoD7.2
Alverca
D. GuiM6.9
Matheus FrançaF6.8
Sergi GómezD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Benfica
Benfica rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Benfica an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Alverca arrives at this Primeira Liga fixture with an encouraging away record, having secured four victories from their last five outings on the road, while Benfica remain unbeaten in their most recent five home matches with three wins and two draws to their name. At home, Benfica have found the net in all five of their latest matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same span. Benfica rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Benfica won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 8 February 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Alverca's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Benfica's implied win probability has risen by 4.0 percentage points, while Alverca's implied win probability has fallen by 2.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Benfica.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Benfica unbeaten run
12
Alverca points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Benfica
Benfica's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Benfica win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Benfica win
Latest market chance 82.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
78.7% → 82.7%
+4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 11.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
12.6% → 11.5%
−1.1 pts
Alverca win
Latest market chance 5.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
8.7% → 5.8%
−2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Benfica
Draw
Alverca
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BenficaAlverca
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
10th
9
Games Played
9
2.44
Points/Game
1.22
2.89
Goals/Game
1.44
0.89
Conceded/Game
1.44
18.3
Shots/Game
11.8
6.1
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Benfica at home (6 matches) vs Alverca away (8 matches)
2.67
Points/Game
1.50
1.83
Goals/Game
1.88
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.38
83%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Benfica
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Alverca
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Benfica Wins
5
Draws
0
Alverca Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Benfica1 – 0Alverca
Benfica2 – 1Alverca
Alverca1 – 2Benfica
Benfica2 – 0Alverca
Alverca0 – 3Benfica
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Benficavs
Alverca
Recent Scoring Profile
2.70
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.70
Goals conceded / game
0.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.1%→Latest 71.1%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 47.0%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?