Arouca vs Estrela Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.06
Draw
3.54
Away Win
3.68
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Arouca
Estrela
Iván Barbero (Näis Djouahra) ⚽
5'
45+4'
• Ianis Stoica
Pablo Gozálbez 🟨
45+6'
Iván Barbero 🟨
45+8'
45+8'
🟨 Abraham Marcus
50'
🟨 Max Scholze
Pedro Santos 🟨
62'
Taichi Fukui 🟨
81'
Jose Fontán 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
7
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
6
10
Fouls
7
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Arouca (4-2-3-1)
I. de Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio
Javi Sánchez
José Fontán
O. Lebedenko
E. van Ee
T. Fukui
A. Trezza
Pablo Gozálbez
N. Djouahra
Barbero
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
Léo Linck
M. Scholze
Patrick Luan
S. Leković
Rafa Soares
Santiago Serra
Eddy Doue
A. Marcus
L. Zvonarek
I. Stoica
L. Antonetti
Player Ratings ?
Arouca
N. DjouahraM7.7
Javi SánchezD7.5
BarberoF7.5
Estrela
Patrick LuanD7.2
S. LekovićD6.9
Santiago SerraM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Arouca edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Estrela have recorded just a solitary victory in their last five away outings, while Arouca have secured three wins from five home fixtures. Arouca have found the net in all of their last five home matches but have only managed one clean sheet during that same period. Arouca rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Arouca won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Estrela's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Arouca's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points, while Estrela's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Arouca
Arouca's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Arouca win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arouca win
Latest market chance 46.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
43.2% → 46.5%
+3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.0%
−0.7 pts
Estrela win
Latest market chance 26.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
29.1% → 26.6%
−2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Arouca
Draw
Estrela
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AroucaEstrela
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
1.43
1.43
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.9
Shots/Game
12.6
3.8
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Arouca at home (5 matches) vs Estrela away (6 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
1.00
1.80
Goals/Game
2.00
0.60
Conceded/Game
2.17
80%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arouca
Home form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Estrela
Away form
D
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arouca Wins
2
Draws
1
Estrela Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Arouca1 – 0Estrela
Estrela3 – 1Arouca
Arouca1 – 0Estrela
Estrela2 – 1Arouca
Arouca0 – 0Estrela
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aroucavs
Estrela
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 51.1%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 54.7%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Arouca's 10 matches and 2 of Estrela's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?