Alverca vs Casa Pia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.80
Draw
3.69
Away Win
4.70
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Alverca
Casa Pia
Ian Luccas 🟨
22'
25'
🟨 Pedro Rosas
36'
⚽ Selvi Clua (Henrique Araújo)
Davy Gui 🟨
40'
Francisco Chiquinho 🟨
48'
Ian Luccas (Francisco Chiquinho) ⚽
66'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
15
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
4
9
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Alverca (3-4-3)
Matheus Mendes
Y. Bojang
Sergi Gómez
I. James
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Ian Luccas
D. Gui
Francisco Chissumba
Chiquinho
D. Camara
Figueiredo
Casa Pia (4-3-3)
P. Sequeira
Geraldes
Kaly
David Sousa
Pedro Rosas
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
S. Pérez
Silvi
J. Livolant
Henrique Araújo
B. Pauwels
Player Ratings ?
Alverca
Ian LuccasM7.6
Y. BojangD7.0
André VidigalF7.0
Casa Pia
SilviM7.5
M. El BoukammiriF7.0
David SousaD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Alverca
Alverca rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Alverca a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Casa Pia have enjoyed an encouraging run on the road with three wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, whereas Alverca have struggled at home with two victories and three defeats in that same span. At this venue, Alverca have found the net in three of their last five outings while also keeping a clean sheet twice during that recent period. Alverca rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Alverca won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 12 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Casa Pia's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Alverca's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points, while Casa Pia's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Alverca a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Alverca
Alverca's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Alverca win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alverca win
Latest market chance 53.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
55.4% → 53.4%
−2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.0% → 25.8%
+0.8 pts
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 20.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
19.6% → 20.8%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Alverca
Draw
Casa Pia
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlvercaCasa Pia
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
17th
10
Games Played
10
1.10
Points/Game
0.70
1.30
Goals/Game
0.50
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.90
11.8
Shots/Game
10.0
3.9
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away Context
Alverca at home (8 matches) vs Casa Pia away (7 matches)
1.12
Points/Game
1.57
0.88
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.71
25%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Alverca
Home form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Casa Pia
Away form
L
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alverca Wins
2
Draws
0
Casa Pia Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Alverca3 – 1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0 – 2Alverca
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alvercavs
Casa Pia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.6%→Latest 48.8%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.6%→Latest 50.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?