Alverca vs Arouca Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.18
Draw
3.21
Away Win
3.72
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Alverca
Arouca
Steven Baseya 🟥
6'
19'
🟨 Jose Fontán
24'
⚽ Taichi Fukui (Javi Sánchez)
54'
🟨 Pedro Santos
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos 🟨
71'
André Vidigal 🟥
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
29%
Ball Possession
71%
10
Total Shots
17
1
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
2
2
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Alverca (3-4-3)
Matheus Mendes
S. Baseya
Sergi Gómez
I. James
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Rayan
D. Gui
Francisco Chissumba
Chiquinho
D. Camara
Figueiredo
Arouca (4-2-3-1)
I. de Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio
Javi Sánchez
José Fontán
O. Lebedenko
E. van Ee
Pedro Santos
A. Trezza
T. Fukui
N. Djouahra
Barbero
Player Ratings ?
Alverca
Y. BojangD6.8
Matheus MendesG6.7
Sergi GómezD6.7
Arouca
Javi SánchezD8.2
T. FukuiM8.2
O. LebedenkoD7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Alverca edge head-to-head, Arouca edge recent form, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Alverca slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Arouca head to this Primeira Liga clash with a mixed away record of one win and three draws from their last five outings, while Alverca have secured two victories in just as many home fixtures. At home, Alverca have found the net in all five of their recent matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same sample. Arouca rate stronger on form, while Alverca hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Alverca won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Arouca's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Alverca's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Arouca's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Arouca
Arouca's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Arouca win as less likely than it did 12 days ago. Alverca remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alverca win
Latest market chance 43.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
42.8% → 43.6%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.7% → 28.7%
+1.0 pts
Arouca win
Latest market chance 27.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
29.6% → 27.8%
−1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Alverca
Draw
Arouca
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlvercaArouca

Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
5th
8
Games Played
8
1.38
Points/Game
1.75
1.62
Goals/Game
1.38
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.88
11.8
Shots/Game
10.9
3.9
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Alverca at home (8 matches) vs Arouca away (8 matches)
1.12
Points/Game
1.50
0.88
Goals/Game
0.88
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.88
25%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Alverca
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Arouca
Away form
W
L
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alverca Wins
1
Draws
0
Arouca Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Alverca2 – 1Arouca
Arouca1 – 0Alverca
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alvercavs
Arouca

Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.8%→Latest 51.3%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.5%→Latest 56.1%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Arouca's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?