Sunderland vs Leeds Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadium of Light
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.96
Draw
3.23
Away Win
2.64
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Sunderland
Leeds
29'
🟨 Ethan Ampadu
Reinildo Isnard Mandava 🟨
39'
67'
🟨 Jayden Bogle
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
15
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
R. Roefs
T. Hume
N. Mukiele
L. O'Nien
Reinildo
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
C. Rigg
E. Le Fée
N. Angulo
B. Brobbey
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
J. Trafford
J. Justin
J. Bijol
T. Muharemović
J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
H. Wilson
B. Aaronson
D. Calvert-Lewin
Player Ratings ?
Sunderland
N. MukieleD7.2
L. O'NienD6.9
O. AldereteD6.8
Leeds
J. TraffordG7.6
S. LongstaffM7.0
N. OkaforF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sunderland edge head-to-head, Leeds edge recent form, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leeds stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sunderland stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leeds have secured just one win from their last five away outings, while Sunderland have managed two victories in their corresponding home sample. Sunderland have found the net in only two of their last five home matches and have kept two clean sheets in that same period. Sunderland carry two confirmed absences and two doubtful names, whereas Leeds have two players out with three further questionable for selection. Leeds rate stronger on form, while Sunderland rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Sunderland won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 3 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Leeds's 1, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Sunderland's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Leeds's implied win probability has risen by 0.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Sunderland
Sunderland's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sunderland win as less likely than it did 8 days ago. Leeds remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sunderland win
Latest market chance 32.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.2% → 32.4%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
28.6% → 30.3%
+1.7 pts
Leeds win
Latest market chance 37.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.2% → 37.3%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sunderland
Draw
Leeds
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SunderlandLeeds
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
8th
7
Games Played
7
0.57
Points/Game
1.43
0.86
Goals/Game
1.29
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.86
12.2
Shots/Game
12.1
3.6
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Sunderland at home (6 matches) vs Leeds away (5 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
0.60
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sunderland
Home form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leeds
Away form
D
L
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sunderland Wins
1
Draws
3
Leeds Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Leeds0 – 1Sunderland
Sunderland1 – 1Leeds
Leeds2 – 1Sunderland
Sunderland2 – 2Leeds
Leeds0 – 0Sunderland
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sunderlandvs
Leeds
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.0%→Latest 45.0%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 52.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Sunderland's 10 matches and 3 of Leeds's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?