Sunderland vs Chelsea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadium of Light
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.75
Draw
3.72
Away Win
2.02
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Sunderland
Chelsea
Jules Ahoka 🟨
21'
35'
🟨 Levi Colwill
Enzo Le Fée ⚽ (P)
36'
Thomas Meunier 🟨
50'
Brian Brobbey 🟨
53'
55'
🟨 Pedro Neto
76'
🟨 Moises Caicedo
Luke O'Nien 🟨
90'
Régis Le Bris 🟨
90+1'
Nilson Angulo 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
31%
Ball Possession
69%
9
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
2
17
Fouls
8
5
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
R. Roefs
T. Meunier
N. Mukiele
L. O'Nien
Reinildo
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
T. Hume
E. Le Fée
C. Talbi
B. Brobbey
Chelsea (4-3-2-1)
M. Penders
M. Palestra
W. Fofana
L. Colwill
Pep Chavarría
M. Caicedo
R. Lavia
J. Henderson
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
Pedro Neto
Player Ratings ?
Sunderland
R. RoefsG7.0
E. Le FéeM7.0
T. HumeM6.8
Chelsea
M. CaicedoM7.2
R. LaviaM7.1
M. GustoD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sunderland edge defence and head-to-head, Chelsea edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sunderland slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sunderland stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chelsea have recorded two wins from their last five away fixtures across seasons, while Sunderland have secured two victories and a draw in their corresponding home sample of five matches. The Black Cats have found the net in two of their last five home outings and kept a clean sheet on two occasions during that same period. Chelsea rate stronger on form and attack, while Sunderland rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Sunderland won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Chelsea's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Sunderland's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points, while Chelsea's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Sunderland losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Chelsea
Chelsea's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chelsea win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sunderland win
Latest market chance 25.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.2% → 25.7%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.2%
−0.4 pts
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 48.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
46.2% → 48.1%
+1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sunderland
Draw
Chelsea
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SunderlandChelsea
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
0.56
Points/Game
1.78
0.78
Goals/Game
2.11
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.67
12.2
Shots/Game
13.6
3.6
Shots on Target
5.7
Home vs Away Context
Sunderland at home (6 matches) vs Chelsea away (6 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sunderland
Home form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chelsea
Away form
W
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sunderland Wins
3
Draws
0
Chelsea Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Sunderland1 – 0Chelsea
Sunderland2 – 1Chelsea
Chelsea1 – 2Sunderland
Chelsea5 – 1Sunderland
Sunderland0 – 1Chelsea
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sunderlandvs
Chelsea
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.60
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.4%→Latest 52.7%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 55.7%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?