Nott'm Forest vs Man City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
City Ground
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.63
Draw
4.05
Away Win
1.75
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Nott'm Forest
Man City
Jair Cunha ⚽
6'
Liam Delap (Xaver Schlager) ⚽
18'
52'
⚽ Rayan Cherki
James Mcatee 🟨
64'
Dan Ndoye 🟨
69'
Liam Delap (Morgan Gibbs-White) ⚽
73'
Luca Netz 🟨
90+4'
Igor Jesus 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
22%
Ball Possession
78%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
7
13
Fouls
7
4
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Nott'm Forest (3-4-2-1)
M. Sels
Jair
N. Milenković
Murillo
D. Muñoz
R. Yates
X. Schlager
N. Williams
J. McAtee
M. Gibbs-White
L. Delap
Man City (4-2-3-1)
G. Donnarumma
A. Khusanov
Rúben Dias
M. Guéhi
J. Gvardiol
E. Anderson
E. Fernández
I. Ndiaye
R. Cherki
J. Doku
E. Haaland
Player Ratings ?
Nott'm Forest
L. DelapF8.7
M. Gibbs-WhiteM7.3
X. SchlagerM7.0
Man City
R. CherkiM7.2
Matheus NunesM7.1
M. GuéhiD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Man City
Man City rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Nott'm Forest edge defence, giving Man City an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nott'm Forest slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Man City have secured three wins from their last five away fixtures, while Nott'm Forest have drawn twice in their last five home outings. Nott'm Forest have managed to score in just one of their last five home matches and have kept only a single clean sheet during the same period. Man City rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Nott'm Forest hold a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 4 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Nott'm Forest's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points, while Man City's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Man City.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Man City unbeaten run
54%
Man City yellow cards after 75'
2
Nott'm Forest points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Man City
Man City's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Man City win as less likely than it did 12 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nott'm Forest win
Latest market chance 21.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.5% → 21.0%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.2% → 23.9%
+0.7 pts
Man City win
Latest market chance 55.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
56.3% → 55.1%
−1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nott'm Forest
Draw
Man City
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Nott'm ForestMan City
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
2nd
9
Games Played
9
0.67
Points/Game
2.33
0.67
Goals/Game
2.22
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.11
16.3
Shots/Game
15.0
3.6
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Nott'm Forest at home (5 matches) vs Man City away (5 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
1.80
0.60
Goals/Game
2.00
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.20
20%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nott'm Forest
Home form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Man City
Away form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nott'm Forest Wins
1
Draws
1
Man City Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Man City2 – 2Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest1 – 2Man City
Nott'm Forest1 – 0Man City
Man City3 – 0Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest0 – 2Man City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nott'm Forestvs
Man City
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 57.7%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.8%→Latest 57.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Nott'm Forest's 10 matches and 1 of Man City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?