Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
City Ground
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
6.58
Draw
4.00
Away Win
1.57
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Nott'm Forest
Arsenal
Neco Williams 🟨
17'
53'
🟨 Noni Madueke
80'
⚽ Noni Madueke (Declan Rice)
Match Statistics ?
26%
Ball Possession
74%
14
Total Shots
9
2
Shots on Goal
1
8
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Nott'm Forest (3-4-2-1)
M. Sels
Jair
O. Diomande
Murillo
D. Muñoz
J. McAtee
X. Schlager
N. Williams
N. Domínguez
D. Ndoye
L. Delap
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
David Raya
B. White
E. Konsa
Gabriel Magalhães
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
Bruno Guimarães
B. Saka
M. Ødegaard
E. Eze
K. Havertz
Player Ratings ?
Nott'm Forest
MurilloD7.6
JairD6.8
O. DiomandeD6.8
Arsenal
D. RiceM7.7
Gabriel MagalhãesD7.5
E. KonsaD7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arsenal
Arsenal rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Arsenal an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Arsenal head into this Premier League fixture with an impressive away record of four wins from their last five outings, while Nott'm Forest have struggled at home, managing only three draws and two defeats in the same span. At home, the hosts have scored in just two of their last five matches and kept a clean sheet only once during that identical period. Both squads face selection challenges with Nott'm Forest having two definite absences and two players in doubt, while Arsenal carry three confirmed outsidess alongside one doubtful option. Arsenal rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 17 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Nott'm Forest's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points, while Arsenal's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Arsenal.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Arsenal unbeaten run
62%
Arsenal yellow cards after 75'
3
Nott'm Forest points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Arsenal
Arsenal's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Arsenal win as more likely than it did 9 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nott'm Forest win
Latest market chance 15.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.4% → 15.7%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 23.9%
−0.7 pts
Arsenal win
Latest market chance 60.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
59.0% → 60.4%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nott'm Forest
Draw
Arsenal
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Nott'm ForestArsenal
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
2nd
6
Games Played
6
0.83
Points/Game
2.50
0.83
Goals/Game
1.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.83
16.3
Shots/Game
13.8
3.6
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Nott'm Forest at home (5 matches) vs Arsenal away (5 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
2.40
0.60
Goals/Game
1.00
0.80
Conceded/Game
0.60
20%
Win Rate
80%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nott'm Forest
Home form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arsenal
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nott'm Forest Wins
0
Draws
2
Arsenal Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Nott'm Forest0 – 0Arsenal
Arsenal3 – 0Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest0 – 0Arsenal
Arsenal3 – 0Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest1 – 2Arsenal
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nott'm Forestvs
Arsenal
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 52.2%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.2%→Latest 49.5%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Nott'm Forest's 10 matches and 4 of Arsenal's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?