Newcastle vs Everton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St James' Park
Mon 02 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.18
Draw
3.67
Away Win
3.31
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Newcastle
Everton
Dan Burn 🟨
32'
49'
⚽ Thierno Barry
52'
🟨 Tyrique George
73'
🟨 David William Moyes
Jacob Ramsey 🟨
90+6'
Jacob Ramsey 🟥
90+8'
Fabian Schär 🟨
90+9'
90+9'
🟨 Brennan Johnson
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
17
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Horníček
A. Dedić
F. Schär
D. Burn
L. Hall
Joelinton
Nico González
A. Elanga
J. Willock
H. Barnes
W. Osula
Everton (4-2-3-1)
J. Pickford
J. O'Brien
J. Tarkowski
J. Branthwaite
V. Mykolenko
H. Armstrong
J. Garner
M. Röhl
K. Dewsbury-Hall
Tyrique George
T. Barry
Player Ratings ?
Newcastle
Sean SteurM6.9
L. HorníčekG6.8
B. TouréF6.7
Everton
T. BarryF8.0
J. BranthwaiteD7.3
K. Dewsbury-HallM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newcastle edge recent form and attack, Everton edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Everton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Everton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newcastle have secured two wins from their last five home outings, while Everton remain winless in their corresponding away sample with three draws and two defeats. The Magpies have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same sequence. Newcastle face two confirmed absences and three doubtfuls, whereas Everton have no certain outgoings though one player remains doubtful. Newcastle rate stronger on form and attack, while Everton rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. Everton won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 28 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Newcastle's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Newcastle's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points, while Everton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Everton
Everton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Everton win as less likely than it did 10 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Newcastle remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 43.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
42.9% → 43.4%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.0% → 26.7%
+0.7 pts
Everton win
Latest market chance 29.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
31.0% → 29.9%
−1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newcastle
Draw
Everton
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NewcastleEverton
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
14th
8
Games Played
8
1.38
Points/Game
1.25
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.12
12.2
Shots/Game
14.0
3.4
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Newcastle at home (5 matches) vs Everton away (5 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.20
1.20
Goals/Game
0.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
20%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newcastle
Home form
W
D
D
W
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Everton
Away form
L
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newcastle Wins
1
Draws
2
Everton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Newcastle2 – 3Everton
Everton1 – 4Newcastle
Newcastle0 – 1Everton
Everton0 – 0Newcastle
Newcastle1 – 1Everton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newcastlevs
Everton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 55.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.4%→Latest 59.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Newcastle's 10 matches and 2 of Everton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?