Newcastle vs Aston Villa Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St James' Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.28
Draw
3.73
Away Win
3.06
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Joelinton 🟨
18'
Sven Botman 🟨
18'
25'
🟨 João Gomes
28'
🟨 Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
36'
⚽ Johan Manzambi (João Gomes)
Nico González 🟨
53'
Yoane Wissa 🟨
55'
William Osula 🟨
78'
Malick Thiaw 🟨
86'
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
16
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
11
6
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Horníček
L. Miley
M. Thiaw
S. Botman
L. Hall
Nico González
Joelinton
M. Fernandez-Pardo
J. Willock
H. Barnes
Y. Wissa
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
M. Cash
V. Lindelöf
T. Mings
A. Wan-Bissaka
B. Kamara
João Gomes
Alysson Edward
J. Manzambi
E. Buendía
N. Jackson
Player Ratings ?
Newcastle
Nico GonzálezM7.0
J. WillockM6.9
L. HallD6.7
Aston Villa
J. ManzambiM8.2
João GomesM7.7
Alysson EdwardM7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newcastle edge recent form and attack, Aston Villa edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newcastle remain unbeaten in their last five home outings with three wins and two draws, while Aston Villa have recorded just two victories from five away matches during that same period. The Magpies have scored in every one of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches. Four Newcastle players are unavailable for selection, whereas three Aston Villa squad members cannot play and two others remain doubtful ahead of the clash. Newcastle rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Aston Villa rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Aston Villa won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 25 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Newcastle's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Newcastle's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Aston Villa's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Newcastle
Newcastle's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Newcastle win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
45.6% → 42.8%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.2% → 25.9%
+0.7 pts
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 31.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.3% → 31.3%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newcastle
Draw
Aston Villa
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NewcastleAston Villa
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
16th
6
Games Played
6
1.33
Points/Game
0.83
1.67
Goals/Game
1.00
2.17
Conceded/Game
1.83
12.2
Shots/Game
11.9
3.4
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Newcastle at home (5 matches) vs Aston Villa away (6 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.20
Goals/Game
2.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
2.33
20%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newcastle
Home form
W
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aston Villa
Away form
D
W
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newcastle Wins
2
Draws
1
Aston Villa Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Newcastle0 – 2Aston Villa
Aston Villa0 – 0Newcastle
Aston Villa4 – 1Newcastle
Newcastle3 – 0Aston Villa
Aston Villa1 – 3Newcastle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newcastlevs
Aston Villa
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 59.0%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 61.4%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Newcastle's 10 matches and 4 of Aston Villa's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?