Newcastle vs Arsenal Head to Head, Prediction
St. James' Park
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
5.46
Draw
4.11
Away Win
1.60
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arsenal
Arsenal rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Arsenal an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Arsenal slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 17.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.8% → 17.5%
−0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.8% → 23.0%
+0.2 pts
Arsenal win
Latest market chance 59.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
59.5% → 59.6%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newcastle
Draw
Arsenal
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NewcastleArsenal
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
1st
10
Games Played
10
1.20
Points/Game
2.70
1.30
Goals/Game
1.50
1.60
Conceded/Game
0.50
12.2
Shots/Game
13.8
3.4
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Newcastle at home (5 matches) vs Arsenal away (5 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
2.40
1.20
Goals/Game
1.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
0.60
20%
Win Rate
80%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newcastle
Home form
D
D
W
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arsenal
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newcastle Wins
1
Draws
0
Arsenal Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.2
Arsenal1 – 0Newcastle
Newcastle1 – 2Arsenal
Arsenal1 – 0Newcastle
Newcastle1 – 0Arsenal
Arsenal4 – 1Newcastle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newcastlevs
Arsenal
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.2%→Latest 55.6%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 53.6%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?