Man United vs Aston Villa Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Old Trafford
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.19
Draw
3.86
Away Win
3.18
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 4
Match Events ?
Man United
Aston Villa
1'
⚽ Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha (John McGinn)
4'
⚽ Nicolas Jackson
Bruno Fernandes ⚽ (P)
16'
Youri Tielemans (Noussair Mazraoui) ⚽
44'
48'
⚽ (P) John McGinn
53'
⚽ Leon Goretzka (Nicolas Jackson)
Ayden Heaven 🟨
57'
Joshua Zirkzee (Patrick Dorgu) ⚽
90+2'
Patrick Dorgu (Bruno Fernandes) ⚽
90+6'
90+7'
🟨 Zion Suzuki
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
26
Total Shots
12
9
Shots on Goal
6
8
Corner Kicks
1
18
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Man United (4-2-3-1)
S. Lammens
N. Mazraoui
L. Yoro
H. Maguire
Diogo Dalot
Y. Tielemans
K. Mainoo
A. Diallo
Bruno Fernandes
Matheus Cunha
B. Mbeumo
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
T. Harwood-Bellis
V. Lindelöf
Pau Torres
I. Maatsen
B. Kamara
L. Goretzka
Alysson Edward
J. McGinn
J. Manzambi
N. Jackson
Player Ratings ?
Man United
Y. TielemansM8.2
P. DorguD7.9
Bruno FernandesM7.7
Aston Villa
N. JacksonF8.3
L. GoretzkaM7.8
Alysson EdwardM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Man United edge attack and head-to-head, Aston Villa edge recent form, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Aston Villa stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Man United slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Man United stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Aston Villa have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and just one defeat in their last five outings, while Man United sit at two victories from the same number of home fixtures. Man United have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. Aston Villa rate stronger on form, while Man United rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. Man United won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 15 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Aston Villa's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 13-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 13 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Man United win
Latest market chance 44.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
44.1% → 44.2%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 25.2%
+0.1 pts
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 30.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.8% → 30.6%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Man United
Draw
Aston Villa
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Man UnitedAston Villa
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
12th
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
1.33
1.11
Goals/Game
1.11
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.44
19.3
Shots/Game
11.9
5.4
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Man United at home (6 matches) vs Aston Villa away (6 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.50
2.33
Goals/Game
2.00
2.50
Conceded/Game
2.33
17%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Man United
Home form
W
L
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aston Villa
Away form
L
D
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Man United Wins
2
Draws
2
Aston Villa Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.4
Man United4 – 4Aston Villa
Man United3 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa2 – 1Man United
Man United2 – 0Aston Villa
Aston Villa0 – 0Man United
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Man Unitedvs
Aston Villa
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.2%→Latest 59.7%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 62.5%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?