Man City vs Brighton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Etihad Stadium
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
4.36
Away Win
4.36
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Man City
Brighton
11'
⚽ Yasin Ayari (Maxim De Cuyper)
20'
🟨 Chema Andrés
49'
🟨 Maxim De Cuyper
81'
🟨 Pascal Groß
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
21
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Goal
3
8
Corner Kicks
2
9
Fouls
13
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Man City (4-3-3)
G. Donnarumma
Matheus Nunes
A. Khusanov
Rúben Dias
J. Gvardiol
A. Bouaddi
E. Anderson
E. Fernández
I. Ndiaye
E. Haaland
J. Doku
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
B. Verbruggen
Costinha
L. Vušković
L. Dunk
O. Boscagli
P. Groß
José María Andrés Baixauli
D. Gómez
Y. Ayari
M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas
Player Ratings ?
Man City
E. AndersonM7.2
A. KhusanovD7.1
Matheus NunesD6.9
Brighton
B. VerbruggenG9.5
Y. AyariM7.8
L. DunkD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Man City edge recent form, Brighton edge defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Brighton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Man City have secured four victories from their last five home outings, while Brighton have managed just two wins in that same number of away fixtures. The hosts have scored in all five of their most recent matches at home but have kept only a single clean sheet during that span. Man City face just one availability concern, whereas Brighton carry six doubts alongside two players listed as doubtful for the clash. Man City rate stronger on form, while Brighton rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 7 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Man City's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points, while Brighton's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Man City unbeaten run
54%
Man City yellow cards after 75'
12
Man City points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Man City
Man City's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Man City win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Man City win
Latest market chance 55.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
57.7% → 55.4%
−2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.1% → 22.2%
+0.1 pts
Brighton win
Latest market chance 22.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
20.2% → 22.4%
+2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Man City
Draw
Brighton
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Man CityBrighton
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
3rd
8
Games Played
8
2.63
Points/Game
2.00
2.50
Goals/Game
2.88
1.12
Conceded/Game
0.88
15.0
Shots/Game
16.9
5.4
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Man City at home (5 matches) vs Brighton away (5 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
1.80
2.20
Goals/Game
2.20
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.20
80%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Man City
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Brighton
Away form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Man City Wins
1
Draws
2
Brighton Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Man City1 – 1Brighton
Brighton2 – 1Man City
Man City2 – 2Brighton
Brighton2 – 1Man City
Brighton0 – 4Man City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Man Cityvs
Brighton
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.0%→Latest 66.9%+3.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.8%→Latest 65.1%+4.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Man City's 10 matches and 2 of Brighton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?