Liverpool vs Man City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Anfield
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.06
Draw
3.72
Away Win
2.28
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Liverpool
Man City
Ronald Araujo 🟨
8'
Ryan Gravenberch 🟨
47'
58'
🟨 Nico O'Reilly
Ryan Gravenberch 🟥
62'
65'
⚽ Erling Haaland
68'
⚽ Jeremy Doku (Elliot Anderson)
78'
⚽ Rayan Cherki (Josko Gvardiol)
86'
🟨 Ayyoub Bouaddi
Virgil van Dijk 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
35%
Ball Possession
65%
13
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
6
19
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
Alisson Becker
R. Araújo
J. Jacquet
V. van Dijk
M. Kerkez
R. Gravenberch
A. Mac Allister
Víctor Muñoz
F. Wirtz
B. Barcola
L. Koumas
Man City (4-2-3-1)
G. Donnarumma
Matheus Nunes
Rúben Dias
M. Guéhi
N. O'Reilly
E. Anderson
E. Fernández
I. Ndiaye
R. Cherki
A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Player Ratings ?
Liverpool
A. Mac AllisterM6.7
F. ChiesaF6.6
J. JacquetD6.5
Man City
R. CherkiM8.2
G. DonnarummaG8.1
J. DokuF7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Man City edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Man City slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Man City have shown resilience on the road with three wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures, while Liverpool remain unbeaten at home in that same span but with just a solitary victory to show for it. Liverpool have found the net in four of their last five home outings yet have only kept one clean sheet during that identical period. The Reds face a slightly unsettled squad with five players out and one doubtful, whereas Man City have no confirmed absences though they also carry one player in doubt. Man City rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Man City won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 8 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Liverpool's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Liverpool win
Latest market chance 32.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
31.8% → 32.3%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 26.0%
+0.2 pts
Man City win
Latest market chance 41.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
42.4% → 41.7%
−0.7 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
15 snapshots
+5.5+2.750−2.75Sep 27Oct 1Oct 4Oct 7Oct 11
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Liverpool
Draw
Man City
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Liverpool
Man City
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
1.80
Points/Game
3.00
1.40
Goals/Game
2.60
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.00
16.0
Shots/Game
15.0
4.7
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Liverpool at home (5 matches) vs Man City away (5 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.80
0.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.20
20%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Liverpool
Home form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Man City
Away form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Liverpool Wins
2
Draws
1
Man City Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
2026-02-082025-2026
Liverpool1 – 2Man City
2025-11-092025-2026
Man City3 – 0Liverpool
2025-02-232024-2025
Man City0 – 2Liverpool
2024-12-012024-2025
Liverpool2 – 0Man City
2024-03-102023-2024
Liverpool1 – 1Man City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Liverpool
vs
Man City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
80.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
59.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
38.4%
BTTSBoth teams score
62.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 59.4%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 27 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 62.5%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Sep 14Sep 21Sep 28Oct 4Oct 11
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 27 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Liverpool's 10 matches and 5 of Man City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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