Everton vs Chelsea Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.15
Draw
3.73
Away Win
2.23
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Everton
Chelsea
Harrison Armstrong 🟨
23'
27'
🟨 Pedro Neto
32'
🟨 Josh Acheampong
James Tarkowski 🟨
34'
34'
🟨 Morgan Rogers
46'
⚽ Pedro Neto
65'
🟨 Cole Palmer
Christian Nørgaard 🟨
89'
90'
⚽ Pedro Neto
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
6
Total Shots
18
5
Shots on Goal
7
5
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Everton (4-2-3-1)
J. Pickford
A. Maitland-Niles
J. Tarkowski
J. Branthwaite
V. Mykolenko
H. Armstrong
J. Garner
M. Röhl
K. Dewsbury-Hall
J. Grealish
T. Barry
Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
E. Martínez
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
M. Lacroix
L. Colwill
J. Hato
M. Caicedo
J. Henderson
Pedro Neto
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
João Pedro
Player Ratings ?
Everton
V. MykolenkoD7.0
J. BranthwaiteD6.6
J. PickfordG6.6
Chelsea
Pedro NetoM9.7
E. MartínezG7.6
M. LacroixD7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Everton edge defence, Chelsea edge recent form and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chelsea slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Everton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chelsea arrive at Goodison Park with a mixed away record of one win and one draw from their last five outings, while Everton have secured two victories in just as many home matches. The Toffees have found the net in every one of their last five home games yet have managed only two clean sheets during that same span. Everton face a potential selection issue with one player listed as doubtful, whereas Chelsea carry two confirmed absences alongside another individual in doubt for the fixture. Chelsea rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Everton rate stronger on defence, while attack is closely matched. Everton won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Chelsea's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Chelsea remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Everton win
Latest market chance 30.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.9% → 30.5%
+0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.6% → 25.5%
−1.1 pts
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 44.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.4% → 44.0%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Everton
Draw
Chelsea
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EvertonChelsea
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
6th
6
Games Played
6
1.67
Points/Game
1.67
1.33
Goals/Game
2.50
0.83
Conceded/Game
2.17
14.0
Shots/Game
13.6
5.0
Shots on Target
5.7
Home vs Away Context
Everton at home (6 matches) vs Chelsea away (6 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
1.00
1.83
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Everton
Home form
D
L
W
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chelsea
Away form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Everton Wins
1
Draws
1
Chelsea Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Everton3 – 0Chelsea
Chelsea2 – 0Everton
Chelsea1 – 0Everton
Everton0 – 0Chelsea
Chelsea6 – 0Everton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Evertonvs
Chelsea
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
2.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 56.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.3%→Latest 59.8%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Everton's 10 matches and 4 of Chelsea's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?