Crystal Palace vs Nott'm Forest Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Selhurst Park
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.86
Draw
3.38
Away Win
2.58
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Crystal Palace
Nott'm Forest
3'
⚽ Dan Ndoye
Jefferson Lerma 🟨
16'
Daichi Kamada (Quinten Timber) ⚽
41'
Jefferson Lerma (Adam Wharton) ⚽
45+4'
Yeremy Pino ⚽
59'
Yeremy Pino 🟨
59'
73'
🟨 Ola Aina
90+4'
🟨 Murillo Santiago
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
13
Total Shots
24
7
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
8
11
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
W. Benítez
J. Lerma
C. Richards
J. Canvot
A. Khalaili
A. Wharton
Q. Timber
T. Mitchell
D. Kamada
Yeremy Pino
J. Strand Larsen
Nott'm Forest (3-4-2-1)
M. Sels
O. Aina
O. Diomande
Murillo
D. Muñoz
X. Schlager
J. McAtee
N. Williams
M. Gibbs-White
D. Ndoye
L. Delap
Player Ratings ?
Crystal Palace
Yeremy PinoM8.1
A. WhartonM7.7
D. KamadaM7.5
Nott'm Forest
N. WilliamsM7.0
M. SelsG6.7
D. NdoyeM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Nott'm Forest a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nott'm Forest stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nott'm Forest stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nott'm Forest stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nott'm Forest stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nott'm Forest have enjoyed a positive run away from home with three wins and just one defeat in their last five outings, while Crystal Palace have struggled at home with no victories and three losses across the same span. The Eagles have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Crystal Palace face four confirmed absences while Nott'm Forest will manage around three certain outgoings alongside one player listed as doubtful for the fixture. Nott'm Forest rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 1 February 2026, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Crystal Palace's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Nott'm Forest's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Nott'm Forest a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Crystal Palace win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. Nott'm Forest remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Crystal Palace win
Latest market chance 33.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
35.9% → 33.8%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.7%
+0.3 pts
Nott'm Forest win
Latest market chance 37.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
35.7% → 37.5%
+1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Crystal Palace
Draw
Nott'm Forest
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Crystal PalaceNott'm Forest
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
13th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
1.00
1.20
Goals/Game
0.80
2.20
Conceded/Game
1.00
10.9
Shots/Game
16.3
3.8
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Crystal Palace at home (6 matches) vs Nott'm Forest away (5 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.20
2.67
Conceded/Game
1.80
17%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Crystal Palace
Home form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nott'm Forest
Away form
W
W
L
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Crystal Palace Wins
0
Draws
4
Nott'm Forest Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.8
Nott'm Forest1 – 1Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace1 – 1Nott'm Forest
Crystal Palace1 – 1Nott'm Forest
Nott'm Forest1 – 0Crystal Palace
Nott'm Forest1 – 1Crystal Palace
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Crystal Palacevs
Nott'm Forest
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.30
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 43.4%→Latest 50.3%+6.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 55.7%+5.7 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Crystal Palace's 10 matches and 5 of Nott'm Forest's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?