Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Selhurst Park
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.90
Draw
3.66
Away Win
2.44
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
36'
🟨 Nico González
45+1'
🟨 Fabian Schär
47'
⚽ William Osula (Jacob Murphy)
58'
⚽ Harvey Barnes (Amar Dedić)
Yeremy Pino 🟨
75'
78'
🟨 Lewis Hall
Anan Khalaili 🟨
79'
Jaydee Canvot 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
17
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
2
7
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
W. Benítez
C. Richards
A. Disasi
J. Canvot
A. Khalaili
A. Wharton
D. Kamada
T. Mitchell
D. McNeil
Yeremy Pino
J. Mateta
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Horníček
A. Dedić
F. Schär
D. Burn
L. Hall
Nico González
Joelinton
J. Murphy
J. Willock
H. Barnes
W. Osula
Player Ratings ?
Crystal Palace
A. DisasiD6.9
D. OsorioM6.6
E. NketiahF6.5
Newcastle
W. OsulaF7.9
H. BarnesM7.8
J. MurphyM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newcastle edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Newcastle slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newcastle slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides arrive with identical recent form, as Newcastle have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away fixtures while Crystal Palace have secured only a single victory and drawn once in their last five home outings. Crystal Palace have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same span, conceding goals in every one of those five encounters at this venue. Availability concerns loom for both squads ahead of kickoff, with Crystal Palace carrying two confirmed out and three doubtful players while Newcastle have two confirmed out and two doubtful players listed in their injury updates. Newcastle rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Crystal Palace won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 12 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Newcastle's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Crystal Palace's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points, while Newcastle's implied win probability has risen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Newcastle
Newcastle's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Newcastle win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Crystal Palace win
Latest market chance 33.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
36.8% → 33.0%
−3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 26.4%
−0.4 pts
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.4% → 40.6%
+4.2 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
14 snapshots
+5+2.50−2.5Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 22Oct 25
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Crystal Palace
Draw
Newcastle
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
7
1.00
Points/Game
1.14
1.29
Goals/Game
1.43
2.43
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.9
Shots/Game
12.2
3.8
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Crystal Palace at home (6 matches) vs Newcastle away (5 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.40
1.33
Goals/Game
1.40
2.67
Conceded/Game
1.80
17%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Crystal Palace
Home form
D
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Newcastle
Away form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Crystal Palace Wins
2
Draws
1
Newcastle Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
2026-04-122025-2026
Crystal Palace2 – 1Newcastle
2026-01-042025-2026
Newcastle2 – 0Crystal Palace
2025-04-162024-2025
Newcastle5 – 0Crystal Palace
2024-11-302024-2025
Crystal Palace1 – 1Newcastle
2024-04-242023-2024
Crystal Palace2 – 0Newcastle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Crystal Palace
vs
Newcastle
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.40
Goals conceded / game
1.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
81.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
60.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
40.6%
BTTSBoth teams score
64.4%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 60.7%+3.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 22Oct 25
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.6%→Latest 64.0%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 12Oct 15Oct 18Oct 22Oct 25
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Crystal Palace's 10 matches and 3 of Newcastle's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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