Coventry vs Newcastle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Coventry Building Society Arena
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.47
Draw
3.69
Away Win
2.13
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Coventry
Newcastle
Jack Rudoni ⚽ (P)
6'
Sidiki Cherif ⚽
48'
Milan van Ewijk 🟨
66'
70'
⚽ Sven Botman (Nico González)
Ellis Simms (Brandon Thomas-Asante) ⚽
81'
81'
🟨 Joelinton
Stephen Mfuni (Jay Dasilva) ⚽
86'
Match Statistics ?
33%
Ball Possession
67%
9
Total Shots
19
6
Shots on Goal
6
2
Corner Kicks
6
3
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
5
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Coventry (4-2-3-1)
C. Rushworth
M. van Ewijk
E. Pinnock
B. Thomas
J. Dasilva
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
M. Grimes
B. Thomas-Asante
J. Rudoni
E. Mason-Clark
S. Cherif
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Horníček
L. Miley
M. Thiaw
S. Botman
L. Hall
Nico González
J. Willock
J. Murphy
Y. Wissa
H. Barnes
M. Fernandez-Pardo
Player Ratings ?
Coventry
S. MfuniD7.5
S. CherifF7.4
E. SimmsF7.4
Newcastle
Nico GonzálezM7.7
S. BotmanD7.5
H. BarnesM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Newcastle
Newcastle rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Coventry edge defence, giving Newcastle an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Coventry slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides have struggled in their last five outings, with Newcastle recording just one win and a draw away from home while Coventry managed only one victory and a single draw at home during the same span. Coventry have scored in just one of their last five home matches but have kept two clean sheets in that same period. Coventry face four confirmed absences and two doubts, while Newcastle carry two certain knocks and five players listed as doubtful for the fixture. Newcastle rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Coventry hold a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2010. Over the 14-day comparison window, Coventry's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Newcastle's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Newcastle.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Coventry
Coventry's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Coventry win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Newcastle remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Coventry win
Latest market chance 29.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.2% → 29.0%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 26.6%
−0.2 pts
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 44.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.0% → 44.4%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Coventry
Draw
Newcastle
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CoventryNewcastle
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
11th
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
1.60
0.20
Goals/Game
1.80
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.80
11.2
Shots/Game
12.2
3.3
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Coventry at home (5 matches) vs Newcastle away (5 matches)
1.20
Points/Game
1.40
1.40
Goals/Game
1.40
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.80
40%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Coventry
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newcastle
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Coventry Wins
0
Draws
0
Newcastle Wins
5
Avg Goals
3.0
Newcastle4 – 1Coventry
Coventry0 – 2Newcastle
Newcastle3 – 1Coventry
Coventry0 – 2Newcastle
Newcastle2 – 0Coventry
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Coventryvs
Newcastle
Recent Scoring Profile
0.40
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
1/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
7/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 32 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 57.2%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 60.0%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Coventry's 10 matches and 5 of Newcastle's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?