Chelsea vs Man United Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stamford Bridge
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.03
Draw
3.80
Away Win
3.59
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Chelsea
Man United
Morgan Rogers (Romeo Lavia) ⚽
50'
59'
🟨 Lisandro Martínez
63'
🟥 Lisandro Martínez
Cole Palmer ⚽ (P)
64'
65'
🟨 Harry Maguire
70'
🟨 Kobbie Mainoo
81'
🟨 Bryan Mbeumo
86'
🟨 Joshua Zirkzee
Mike Penders 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
19
Total Shots
12
10
Shots on Goal
5
8
Corner Kicks
7
8
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
M. Penders
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
W. Fofana
L. Colwill
M. Palestra
R. Lavia
M. Caicedo
Estêvão
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
Pedro Neto
Man United (4-2-3-1)
S. Lammens
L. Yoro
H. Maguire
Lisandro Martínez
Diogo Dalot
Andrey Santos
C. Baleba
A. Diallo
Bruno Fernandes
Matheus Cunha
B. Mbeumo
Player Ratings ?
Chelsea
M. RogersM8.2
R. LaviaM7.7
M. PendersG7.6
Man United
S. LammensG7.6
B. MbeumoF6.5
L. YoroD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Chelsea edge recent form and attack, Man United edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chelsea slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Man United slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Man United stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chelsea have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Man United have managed just one win in five away fixtures across this period. The Blues have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. Chelsea face seven confirmed absences with no doubts, whereas Man United have four certain outcasts alongside two players listed as doubtful. Chelsea rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Man United rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Man United won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Chelsea's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Chelsea's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points, while Man United's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
56%
Man United yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Man United
Man United's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Man United win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Chelsea remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 48.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
45.6% → 48.9%
+3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 25.4%
+0.5 pts
Man United win
Latest market chance 25.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
29.5% → 25.8%
−3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chelsea
Draw
Man United
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ChelseaMan United
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
16th
8
Games Played
8
1.63
Points/Game
0.88
2.12
Goals/Game
1.25
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.62
13.6
Shots/Game
19.3
5.7
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Chelsea at home (5 matches) vs Man United away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.60
2.60
Goals/Game
0.80
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.60
60%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chelsea
Home form
W
W
D
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Man United
Away form
W
L
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chelsea Wins
2
Draws
1
Man United Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Chelsea0 – 1Man United
Man United2 – 1Chelsea
Chelsea1 – 0Man United
Man United1 – 1Chelsea
Chelsea4 – 3Man United
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chelseavs
Man United
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.0%→Latest 58.3%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.3%→Latest 60.8%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Chelsea's 10 matches and 2 of Man United's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?