Brighton vs Crystal Palace Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
American Express Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.49
Draw
4.77
Away Win
6.45
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Jaydee Canvot ⚽ (OG)
4'
Diego Gomez (Olivier Boscagli) ⚽
7'
Yasin Ayari (Charalampos Kostoulas) ⚽
10'
Pascal Groß 🟨
29'
Charalampos Kostoulas ⚽
49'
51'
🟨 Daichi Kamada
Chema Andrés 🟨
64'
Jack Hinshelwood ⚽
84'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
17
Total Shots
5
9
Shots on Goal
1
8
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
B. Verbruggen
F. Kadıoğlu
L. Vušković
L. Dunk
O. Boscagli
P. Groß
José María Andrés Baixauli
D. Gómez
Y. Ayari
M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
W. Benítez
J. Canvot
C. Richards
H. Ahanor
A. Khalaili
A. Wharton
Q. Timber
T. Mitchell
D. Kamada
Yeremy Pino
J. Strand Larsen
Player Ratings ?
Brighton
C. KostoulasF8.7
Y. AyariM8.2
O. BoscagliD8.1
Crystal Palace
W. BenítezG6.5
D. McNeilF6.5
J. MatetaF6.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brighton edge recent form, attack and defence, Crystal Palace edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Crystal Palace stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Brighton have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Crystal Palace have managed just a solitary win away in that same span. The Seagulls have found the net in four of their last five home matches yet have kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Brighton face seven confirmed absences alongside one doubtful case, whereas Crystal Palace have only one certain miss but carry four players in doubt. Brighton rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Crystal Palace rate stronger on head-to-head. Crystal Palace won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 8 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Brighton's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Brighton's implied win probability has risen by 5.3 percentage points, while Crystal Palace's implied win probability has fallen by 3.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Brighton
Brighton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Brighton win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brighton win
Latest market chance 63.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
58.6% → 63.9%
+5.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.2% → 20.4%
−1.8 pts
Crystal Palace win
Latest market chance 15.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
19.2% → 15.7%
−3.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brighton
Draw
Crystal Palace
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrightonCrystal Palace
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
13th
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
1.17
3.00
Goals/Game
1.50
0.83
Conceded/Game
2.00
16.9
Shots/Game
10.9
5.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Brighton at home (6 matches) vs Crystal Palace away (5 matches)
2.67
Points/Game
0.80
2.83
Goals/Game
0.60
0.17
Conceded/Game
2.20
83%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brighton
Home form
W
L
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Crystal Palace
Away form
L
D
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brighton Wins
1
Draws
1
Crystal Palace Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Brighton0 – 1Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace0 – 0Brighton
Crystal Palace2 – 1Brighton
Brighton1 – 3Crystal Palace
Brighton4 – 1Crystal Palace
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brightonvs
Crystal Palace
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.8%→Latest 60.4%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 55.8%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Brighton's 10 matches and 4 of Crystal Palace's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?