Brighton vs Brentford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
American Express Stadium
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.96
Away Win
4.01
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Brighton
Brentford
5'
🟨 Kristoffer Ajer
Diego Gomez ⚽
15'
Chema Andrés 🟨
22'
23'
🟥 Igor Thiago
Olivier Boscagli 🟨
27'
Pascal Groß ⚽ (P)
42'
Mats Wieffer 🟨
51'
Lewis Dunk 🟨
61'
69'
🟨 Kevin Schade
Match Statistics ?
75%
Ball Possession
25%
20
Total Shots
5
6
Shots on Goal
0
7
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
7
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
B. Verbruggen
Costinha
L. Vušković
L. Dunk
O. Boscagli
P. Groß
José María Andrés Baixauli
D. Gómez
Y. Ayari
M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
K. Ajer
S. van den Berg
A. Hickey
M. Sangaré
V. Janelt
D. Ouattara
K. Schade
K. Lewis-Potter
Thiago
Player Ratings ?
Brighton
D. GómezM8.2
P. GroßM7.8
L. VuškovićD7.3
Brentford
S. van den BergD6.7
K. SchadeM6.5
C. WilsonF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Brighton
Brighton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Brighton a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Brentford have remained unbeaten in their last five away fixtures with five draws, while Brighton have won three of their last five home outings. Brighton have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets in that same run. Brighton rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Brighton won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 21 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Brentford's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Brighton's implied win probability has risen by 3.9 percentage points, while Brentford's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Brighton a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Brighton
Brighton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Brighton win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brighton win
Latest market chance 51.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
47.2% → 51.1%
+3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.1% → 24.3%
−0.8 pts
Brentford win
Latest market chance 24.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
27.7% → 24.6%
−3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brighton
Draw
Brentford
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrightonBrentford
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
7th
9
Games Played
9
2.11
Points/Game
1.56
2.67
Goals/Game
1.78
0.78
Conceded/Game
1.00
16.9
Shots/Game
13.1
5.2
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Brighton at home (6 matches) vs Brentford away (6 matches)
2.67
Points/Game
0.67
2.83
Goals/Game
1.00
0.17
Conceded/Game
1.67
83%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brighton
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Brentford
Away form
D
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brighton Wins
3
Draws
1
Brentford Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Brighton2 – 0Brentford
Brentford0 – 2Brighton
Brighton2 – 1Brentford
Brentford4 – 2Brighton
Brighton0 – 0Brentford
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brightonvs
Brentford
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
1.60
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 59.7%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.4%→Latest 60.8%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?