Brentford vs Liverpool Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Gtech Community Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.44
Draw
3.71
Away Win
2.83
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Brentford
Liverpool
31'
🟨 Bradley Barcola
Keane Lewis-Potter (Igor Thiago) ⚽
44'
Yehor Yarmoliuk 🟥
45+8'
Igor Thiago 🟨
46'
49'
🟨 Jérémy Jacquet
53'
🟨 Alexis Mac Allister
Kevin Schade 🟨
60'
62'
⚽ Víctor Muñoz (Florian Wirtz)
Vitaly Janelt 🟨
63'
70'
⚽ Alexander Isak (Bradley Barcola)
Vitaly Janelt 🟥
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
10
Total Shots
21
2
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
9
7
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
K. Ajer
S. van den Berg
K. Lewis-Potter
Y. Yarmolyuk
V. Janelt
D. Ouattara
M. Jensen
J. Anthony
Thiago
Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
Alisson Becker
R. Araújo
J. Jacquet
V. van Dijk
M. Kerkez
A. Mac Allister
D. Szoboszlai
Víctor Muñoz
F. Wirtz
B. Barcola
A. Isak
Player Ratings ?
Brentford
K. Lewis-PotterD7.5
M. KayodeD7.4
A. HickeyD6.9
Liverpool
Víctor MuñozM7.9
A. IsakF7.8
F. WirtzM7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brentford edge recent form, attack and defence, Liverpool edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brentford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brentford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Liverpool stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Liverpool have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Brentford boast an encouraging recent record at home with three victories and no defeats in the same span. Brentford have scored in all five of their previous home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical sample period. The Bees face a selection headache with one confirmed absence and six players in doubt, whereas the Reds carry three certain absences alongside three others listed as doubtful. Brentford rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Liverpool rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Brentford's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points, while Liverpool's implied win probability has fallen by 4.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Liverpool
Liverpool's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Liverpool win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. Brentford remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brentford win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.0% → 39.3%
+3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.2% → 26.4%
+1.2 pts
Liverpool win
Latest market chance 34.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
38.9% → 34.3%
−4.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brentford
Draw
Liverpool
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrentfordLiverpool
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
9th
6
Games Played
6
1.67
Points/Game
1.50
2.00
Goals/Game
1.17
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.17
13.1
Shots/Game
16.0
3.6
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Brentford at home (5 matches) vs Liverpool away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.67
2.00
Goals/Game
2.17
0.60
Conceded/Game
0.83
60%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brentford
Home form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Liverpool
Away form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brentford Wins
1
Draws
1
Liverpool Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Liverpool1 – 1Brentford
Brentford3 – 2Liverpool
Brentford0 – 2Liverpool
Liverpool2 – 0Brentford
Brentford1 – 4Liverpool
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brentfordvs
Liverpool
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 60.4%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 62.5%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Brentford's 10 matches and 4 of Liverpool's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?