Bournemouth vs Sunderland Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vitality Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.17
Draw
3.42
Away Win
3.58
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Marcus Tavernier (Francisco Evanilson) ⚽
5'
17'
🟥 Kevin Danso
Antonio Silva 🟨
26'
40'
🟨 Omar Alderete
Lewis Cook 🟨
45+6'
Francisco Evanilson ⚽
48'
65'
🟨 Chris Rigg
Ryan Christie 🟨
79'
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
29
Total Shots
3
6
Shots on Goal
0
5
Corner Kicks
3
16
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Đ. Petrović
A. Smith
J. Hill
António Silva
A. Truffert
T. Adams
R. Christie
Rayan
L. Cook
M. Tavernier
Evanilson
Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
R. Roefs
N. Mukiele
K. Danso
O. Alderete
Reinildo
G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki
T. Hume
C. Rigg
E. Le Fée
Timur Tuterov
Player Ratings ?
Bournemouth
EvanilsonF9.0
M. TavernierM8.0
J. HillD7.9
Sunderland
N. SadikiM6.4
G. XhakaM6.3
Timur TuterovF6.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bournemouth edge defence, Sunderland edge recent form and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sunderland slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Bournemouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sunderland stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sunderland have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Bournemouth have managed a solitary victory in their last five home fixtures. Bournemouth have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same recent run. Both sides carry significant injury concerns, with Bournemouth facing three confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player, while Sunderland also list three out and one doubtful for the upcoming clash. Sunderland rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Bournemouth hold a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Bournemouth's implied win probability has fallen by 8.8 percentage points, while Sunderland's implied win probability has risen by 6.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Bournemouth
Bournemouth's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Bournemouth win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bournemouth win
Latest market chance 45.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
54.2% → 45.4%
−8.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
24.8% → 27.5%
+2.7 pts
Sunderland win
Latest market chance 27.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
21.0% → 27.1%
+6.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bournemouth
Draw
Sunderland
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BournemouthSunderland
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
18th
6
Games Played
6
0.50
Points/Game
0.67
1.17
Goals/Game
1.00
2.17
Conceded/Game
2.00
14.2
Shots/Game
12.2
4.9
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Bournemouth at home (5 matches) vs Sunderland away (5 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
0.20
1.40
Goals/Game
1.20
0.80
Conceded/Game
2.60
40%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bournemouth
Home form
W
D
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sunderland
Away form
D
W
L
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bournemouth Wins
1
Draws
2
Sunderland Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Bournemouth1 – 1Sunderland
Sunderland3 – 2Bournemouth
Sunderland0 – 1Bournemouth
Bournemouth1 – 2Sunderland
Sunderland1 – 1Bournemouth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bournemouthvs
Sunderland
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 50.3%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 54.5%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Bournemouth's 10 matches and 4 of Sunderland's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?