Bournemouth vs Leeds Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vitality Stadium
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.15
Draw
3.45
Away Win
3.59
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Bournemouth
Leeds
Francisco Evanilson (Justin Kluivert) ⚽
31'
35'
🟨 Nico Elvedi
35'
🟨 Daniel Farke
Ryan Christie 🟨
45+2'
62'
🟨 Ethan Ampadu
Tyler Adams 🟨
74'
Amine Adli (Eli Kroupi) ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
11
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
1
4
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Đ. Petrović
A. Smith
J. Hill
António Silva
A. Truffert
T. Adams
R. Christie
Rayan
J. Kluivert
M. Tavernier
Evanilson
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
J. Trafford
J. Justin
N. Elvedi
T. Muharemović
J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
H. Wilson
D. James
D. Calvert-Lewin
Player Ratings ?
Bournemouth
EvanilsonF7.9
A. AdliF7.5
E. KroupiF7.3
Leeds
L. NmechaF6.8
J. BogleM6.7
J. JustinD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bournemouth edge attack, Leeds edge recent form, defence and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leeds slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bournemouth stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leeds have secured just a solitary victory from their last five away encounters, while Bournemouth have recorded only one win in their corresponding home outings. Bournemouth have found the net in four of their last five matches at home, though they have kept just a single clean sheet during that same period. Three Bournemouth players are unavailable for selection, whereas Leeds face two confirmed absences alongside two additional squad members listed as doubtful. Leeds hold a slight advantage in form, while Bournemouth rate stronger on attack, while defence and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 22 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Bournemouth's implied win probability has risen by 3.8 percentage points, while Leeds's implied win probability has fallen by 4.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Leeds
Leeds's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Leeds win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Bournemouth remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bournemouth win
Latest market chance 45.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.7% → 45.5%
+3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.1% → 27.8%
+0.7 pts
Leeds win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.2% → 26.7%
−4.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bournemouth
Draw
Leeds
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BournemouthLeeds

Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
1.13
Points/Game
1.38
1.50
Goals/Game
1.12
1.62
Conceded/Game
0.75
14.2
Shots/Game
12.1
4.9
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Bournemouth at home (5 matches) vs Leeds away (5 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
1.00
1.40
Goals/Game
0.60
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.00
40%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Bournemouth
Home form
D
D
D
L
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Leeds
Away form
L
W
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bournemouth Wins
1
Draws
2
Leeds Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.2
Bournemouth2 – 2Leeds
Leeds2 – 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth4 – 1Leeds
Leeds4 – 3Bournemouth
Leeds1 – 0Bournemouth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bournemouthvs
Leeds

Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.9%→Latest 51.1%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 55.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Bournemouth's 10 matches and 2 of Leeds's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?