Aston Villa vs Sunderland Head to Head | Premier League

Match Prediction

Data favours

Aston Villa

Aston Villa rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Aston Villa a slight edge.

Leads 3 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Aston Villa stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Aston Villa stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Closely matched

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Aston Villa stronger

HomeAway

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Little change in the market

The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.

Movement strength: Steady

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Aston Villa win

Latest market chance 54.8%

Steady

Market view unchanged

54.8% → 54.8%

±0.0 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 24.5%

Steady

Market view unchanged

24.5% → 24.5%

±0.0 pts

Sunderland win

Latest market chance 20.7%

Steady

Market view unchanged

20.7% → 20.7%

±0.0 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

7 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Aston Villa

Draw

Sunderland

7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Aston Villa

Sunderland

Season Profile

This season

10th

League Position

19th

Games Played

1.30

Points/Game

0.80

1.40

Goals/Game

0.80

1.70

Conceded/Game

1.70

11.9

Shots/Game

12.2

3.3

Shots on Target

3.6

Home vs Away Context

Aston Villa at home (5 matches) vs Sunderland away (5 matches)

1.00

Points/Game

0.20

1.20

Goals/Game

1.20

1.40

Conceded/Game

2.60

20%

Win Rate

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Aston Villa

Home form

1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home

1.2

Goals scored
per match

1.4

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Sunderland

Away form

Lost 3 straight away

1.2

Goals scored
per match

2.6

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Aston Villa Wins

Draws

Sunderland Wins

Avg Goals

3.8

2026-04-192025-2026

Aston Villa4 – 3Sunderland

2025-09-212025-2026

Sunderland1 – 1Aston Villa

2018-03-062017-2018

Sunderland0 – 3Aston Villa

2017-11-212017-2018

Aston Villa2 – 1Sunderland

2016-01-022015-2016

Sunderland3 – 1Aston Villa

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Aston Villa

Sunderland

Recent Scoring Profile

1.80

Goals scored / game

0.80

1.70

Goals conceded / game

1.50

6/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

2/10

7/10

Both Teams Scored

3/10

2/10

Failed to Score

4/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

76.7%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

54.1%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

33.3%

BTTSBoth teams score

54.7%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 51.3%→Latest 54.3%+3.0 pts

Strong move towards 3+ goals

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.7%±0.0 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 20 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Match Poll

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Aston Villa vs Sunderland Head to Head, Prediction