Aston Villa vs Man City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Villa Park
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.08
Draw
4.46
Away Win
1.62
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Aston Villa
Man City
Nicolas Jackson (John McGinn) ⚽
6'
32'
🟨 Marc Guehi
38'
🟨 Rayan Cherki
52'
⚽ Erling Haaland (Iliman Ndiaye)
Johan Manzambi 🟨
54'
Matty Cash 🟨
55'
Nicolas Jackson (Ibrahim Mbaye) ⚽
60'
74'
🟨 Elliot Anderson
76'
🟨 Ryan McAidoo
Brian Madjo 🟨
83'
Emiliano Buendía 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
8
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
7
21
Fouls
17
4
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
M. Cash
V. Lindelöf
Pau Torres
I. Maatsen
B. Kamara
João Gomes
Alysson Edward
J. McGinn
J. Manzambi
N. Jackson
Man City (4-2-3-1)
G. Donnarumma
A. Khusanov
M. Guéhi
Rúben Dias
J. Gvardiol
E. Anderson
E. Fernández
I. Ndiaye
R. Cherki
J. Doku
E. Haaland
Player Ratings ?
Aston Villa
N. JacksonF8.9
Z. SuzukiG7.7
J. McGinnM7.5
Man City
E. HaalandF7.9
J. DokuM7.2
A. KhusanovD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Aston Villa edge head-to-head, Man City edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Aston Villa stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Man City have recorded three wins and two draws from their last five away outings, while Aston Villa have suffered three defeats with just one win and a draw in their last five home matches. Aston Villa have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same five fixtures. Aston Villa face three confirmed absences alongside one player listed as doubtful, whereas Man City have just one certain absence but carry three players in doubt for selection. Man City rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Aston Villa rate stronger on head-to-head. Aston Villa won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Man City's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 12-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Man City unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
67%
Man City yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 12 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 19.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.6% → 19.5%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.7% → 22.3%
−0.4 pts
Man City win
Latest market chance 58.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
57.7% → 58.1%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aston Villa
Draw
Man City
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Aston VillaMan City
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
1st
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.71
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.9
Shots/Game
15.0
3.3
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Aston Villa at home (5 matches) vs Man City away (5 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.80
1.20
Goals/Game
2.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.20
20%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aston Villa
Home form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Man City
Away form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aston Villa Wins
3
Draws
0
Man City Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Man City1 – 2Aston Villa
Aston Villa1 – 0Man City
Man City2 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa2 – 1Man City
Man City4 – 1Aston Villa
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aston Villavs
Man City
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 62.0%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.4%→Latest 60.7%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Aston Villa's 10 matches and 3 of Man City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?