Aston Villa vs Brentford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Villa Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.78
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.52
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Aston Villa
Brentford
10'
⚽ Yehor Yarmoliuk
Nicolas Jackson ⚽
12'
35'
🟨 Igor Thiago
Emiliano Buendía 🟨
45+3'
Matty Cash 🟨
72'
75'
🟨 Vitaly Janelt
John McGinn (Johan Manzambi) ⚽
77'
79'
⚽ Kristoffer Ajer (Jaidon Anthony)
82'
🟨 Michael Kayode
84'
🟨 Kristoffer Ajer
90+5'
🟨 Callum Wilson
90+5'
🟨 K. Andrews
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
20
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
24
2
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
M. Cash
V. Lindelöf
T. Mings
M. Ruggeri
B. Kamara
João Gomes
J. McGinn
E. Buendía
J. Manzambi
N. Jackson
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
Jannik Schuster
K. Ajer
E. Diouf
Y. Yarmolyuk
V. Janelt
J. Anthony
K. Lewis-Potter
K. Schade
Thiago
Player Ratings ?
Aston Villa
N. JacksonF8.2
J. ManzambiM7.7
J. McGinnM7.6
Brentford
K. AjerD7.2
Y. YarmolyukM7.2
J. AnthonyM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brentford edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brentford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Aston Villa have lost three of their last five home outings while Brentford remain winless in five away fixtures with just three draws. Villa have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same span. There are two Aston Villa players unavailable and one doubtful, whereas Brentford face three confirmed absences alongside four doubts. Brentford rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Brentford won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 1 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Aston Villa's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 27-day comparison window, Aston Villa's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Brentford's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
60%
Aston Villa yellow cards after 75'
3
Brentford points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 35.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.4% → 35.0%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.3%
−0.2 pts
Brentford win
Latest market chance 37.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.0% → 37.7%
+0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aston Villa
Draw
Brentford
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Aston VillaBrentford
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
4th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
1.80
0.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.80
Conceded/Game
0.80
11.9
Shots/Game
13.1
3.3
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Aston Villa at home (5 matches) vs Brentford away (6 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.67
1.20
Goals/Game
1.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.67
20%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aston Villa
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Brentford
Away form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aston Villa Wins
2
Draws
1
Brentford Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Aston Villa0 – 1Brentford
Brentford1 – 0Aston Villa
Brentford0 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa3 – 1Brentford
Aston Villa3 – 3Brentford
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aston Villavs
Brentford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 56.2%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 60.1%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Aston Villa's 10 matches and 5 of Brentford's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?