Arsenal vs Leeds Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Emirates Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.41
Draw
4.93
Away Win
7.87
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Arsenal
Leeds
36'
🟨 Ao Tanaka
38'
🟨 Ethan Ampadu
39'
🟨 Daniel Farke
55'
⚽ James Justin (Gabriel Gudmundsson)
59'
🟨 Tarik Muharemovic
Riccardo Calafiori (Ben White) ⚽
62'
Bruno Guimarães (Declan Rice) ⚽
70'
78'
🟨 James Justin
Martin Odegaard 🟨
84'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
13
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
7
Offsides
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
David Raya
B. White
E. Konsa
Gabriel Magalhães
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
M. Ødegaard
N. Madueke
K. Havertz
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
J. Trafford
J. Justin
N. Elvedi
T. Muharemović
J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
A. Stach
N. Okafor
D. Calvert-Lewin
Player Ratings ?
Arsenal
Bruno GuimarãesM8.1
D. RiceM7.6
R. CalafioriD7.5
Leeds
G. GudmundssonM7.5
J. JustinD6.9
N. ElvediD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arsenal
Arsenal rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Arsenal an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Arsenal arrive at home with a perfect record in their last five outings, while Leeds have managed just one win from five away matches across that same span. The Gunners have found the net in each of their last five home games yet have kept four clean sheets during that identical period. Both sides carry squad concerns, with Arsenal having two players out and two doubtful, while Leeds face three confirmed absences alongside two players in doubt. Arsenal rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Arsenal won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 31 January 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Leeds's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 27-day comparison window, Arsenal's implied win probability has fallen by 9.3 percentage points, while Leeds's implied win probability has risen by 6.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Arsenal.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Arsenal unbeaten run
15
Arsenal points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Arsenal
Arsenal's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Arsenal win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arsenal win
Latest market chance 66.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
71.4% → 66.9%
−4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
18.4% → 20.0%
+1.6 pts
Leeds win
Latest market chance 13.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
10.2% → 13.1%
+2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Arsenal
Draw
Leeds
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ArsenalLeeds
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
2.40
Points/Game
1.80
1.60
Goals/Game
1.40
0.80
Conceded/Game
0.60
13.8
Shots/Game
12.1
4.8
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Arsenal at home (5 matches) vs Leeds away (5 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.60
0.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
100%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arsenal
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leeds
Away form
D
D
L
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arsenal Wins
5
Draws
0
Leeds Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.6
Leeds0 – 4Arsenal
Arsenal5 – 0Leeds
Arsenal4 – 1Leeds
Leeds0 – 1Arsenal
Arsenal2 – 1Leeds
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Arsenalvs
Leeds
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.50
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.9%→Latest 52.6%−4.3 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 43.4%→Latest 46.7%+3.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Arsenal's 10 matches and 5 of Leeds's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?