Hornchurch vs Tamworth Head to Head | National League

Match Prediction

Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.

Match Analysis

Hornchurch have secured three victories from their last five outings at home, while Tamworth have managed just a solitary win in that same span away from home. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at this venue but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical run. Tamworth rate stronger on form. Over the 13-day comparison window, Hornchurch's implied win probability has risen by 4.0 percentage points, while Tamworth's implied win probability has fallen by 4.1 percentage points.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

Hornchurch losing run

Tamworth points from last 5 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Strong shift away from Tamworth

Tamworth's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Tamworth win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Hornchurch remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Strong

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Hornchurch win

Latest market chance 40.3%

Strong shortening

Market chance increased

36.3% → 40.3%

+4.0 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 26.5%

Steady

Market view unchanged

26.5% → 26.5%

±0.0 pts

Tamworth win

Latest market chance 33.1%

Strong drift

Market chance decreased

37.2% → 33.1%

−4.1 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

13 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Hornchurch

Draw

Tamworth

4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Hornchurch

Tamworth

Season Profile

This season

15th

League Position

20th

Games Played

1.31

Points/Game

1.13

1.12

Goals/Game

1.67

1.62

Conceded/Game

2.13

8.3

Shots/Game

11.3

4.2

Shots on Target

5.4

Home vs Away Context

Hornchurch at home (7 matches) vs Tamworth away (7 matches)

2.14

Points/Game

0.57

1.43

Goals/Game

1.43

0.57

Conceded/Game

3.00

71%

Win Rate

14%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Hornchurch

Home form

Won 3 of last 5 at home

1.2

Goals scored
per match

0.8

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Tamworth

Away form

Lost 4 of last 5 away

1.2

Goals scored
per match

2.8

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

No previous meetings on record between Hornchurch and Tamworth.

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Hornchurch

Tamworth

Recent Scoring Profile

0.80

Goals scored / game

1.50

1.80

Goals conceded / game

1.80

7/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

7/10

4/10

Both Teams Scored

7/10

4/10

Failed to Score

1/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

78.5%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

56.7%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

35.5%

BTTSBoth teams score

60.2%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 56.3%→Latest 56.3%±0.0 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 59.3%→Latest 59.7%+0.4 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Hornchurch vs Tamworth Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis