Hartlepool vs Hornchurch Head to Head | National League

Match Report

Full Time

2 – 1

Match Events

Hartlepool

Hornchurch

N. Eccleston 🟨

20'

44'

🟨 F. Edwards

46'

⚽ A. Balanta (A. Massey)

N. Eccleston 🟨

68'

N. Eccleston 🟥

68'

W. Harris (N. Sheron) ⚽

72'

L. Charman (N. Sheron) ⚽

80'

86'

🟨 A. Balanta

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.

Match Analysis

Hornchurch have picked up just a solitary win from their last five away outings, while Hartlepool are similarly struggling with only one victory in their most recent five home fixtures. At home, Hartlepool have managed to find the net in two of their last five matches but have kept a clean sheet just once during that same period. Hornchurch rate stronger on form. Over the 13-day comparison window, Hartlepool's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points, while Hornchurch's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

Hartlepool losing run

Hartlepool points from last 5 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift towards Hartlepool

Hartlepool's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hartlepool win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Hartlepool win

Latest market chance 45.4%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

43.1% → 45.4%

+2.3 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 26.8%

Steady

Market view unchanged

27.4% → 26.8%

−0.6 pts

Hornchurch win

Latest market chance 27.8%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

29.5% → 27.8%

−1.7 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

14 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Hartlepool

Draw

Hornchurch

5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Hartlepool

Hornchurch

Season Profile

This season

20th

League Position

9th

Games Played

0.92

Points/Game

1.62

0.92

Goals/Game

1.15

1.46

Conceded/Game

1.46

7.3

Shots/Game

8.3

3.6

Shots on Target

4.2

Home vs Away Context

Hartlepool at home (7 matches) vs Hornchurch away (9 matches)

1.29

Points/Game

0.67

0.86

Goals/Game

0.89

1.00

Conceded/Game

2.44

43%

Win Rate

22%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Hartlepool

Home form

Lost 3 straight at home

0.4

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

2/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Hornchurch

Away form

Lost 4 straight away

0.6

Goals scored
per match

2.4

Goals conceded
per match

1/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

No previous meetings on record between Hartlepool and Hornchurch.

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Hartlepool

Hornchurch

Recent Scoring Profile

0.80

Goals scored / game

0.90

1.70

Goals conceded / game

1.40

4/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/10

4/10

Both Teams Scored

2/10

5/10

Failed to Score

5/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

75.9%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

52.7%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

32.0%

BTTSBoth teams score

56.2%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 51.3%→Latest 52.6%+1.3 pts

Slight move towards 3+ goals

Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 55.7%→Latest 56.0%+0.3 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Hartlepool vs Hornchurch Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis