Harrogate vs Sutton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Exercise Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.68
Draw
3.85
Away Win
4.91
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Harrogate
Sutton
B. Hobson (G. Thomson) ⚽
30'
J. Hmami (B. Dolaghan) ⚽
32'
G. Thomson (E. Bristow) ⚽
35'
75'
⚽ B. Brookes (S. Folarin)
G. Thomson 🟨
85'
86'
🟨 J. Taylor
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Harrogate stronger
Harrogate rate stronger in recent form; Sutton edge head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Harrogate stronger.
Leads 1 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Harrogate stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sutton stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Sutton have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Harrogate boast a more convincing record with four victories in their last five home matches. Harrogate have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have kept only a solitary clean sheet during that period. Harrogate rate stronger on form, while Sutton rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 13 April 2024, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Harrogate's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Sutton's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Harrogate stronger overall.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Sutton unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
12
Harrogate points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Harrogate
Harrogate's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Harrogate win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Harrogate win
Latest market chance 55.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
54.0% → 55.6%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 24.4%
−0.7 pts
Sutton win
Latest market chance 19.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
20.9% → 19.9%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Harrogate
Draw
Sutton
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HarrogateSutton
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
13th
13
Games Played
13
2.15
Points/Game
1.38
2.23
Goals/Game
1.08
1.31
Conceded/Game
1.38
12.3
Shots/Game
6.2
7.3
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Harrogate at home (8 matches) vs Sutton away (8 matches)
2.38
Points/Game
1.38
2.88
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.25
75%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Harrogate
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sutton
Away form
W
L
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Harrogate Wins
1
Draws
1
Sutton Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Harrogate2 – 2Sutton
Sutton1 – 2Harrogate
Harrogate0 – 1Sutton
Sutton2 – 1Harrogate
Harrogate0 – 2Sutton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Harrogatevs
Sutton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 51.3%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.0%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?