Fylde vs Hornchurch Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mill Farm
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.71
Draw
4.15
Away Win
4.38
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Fylde
Hornchurch
17'
⚽ A. Balanta (R. Loft)
M. Matthews Lewis ⚽
39'
C. Whelan 🟨
44'
M. Matthews Lewis (L. Thomas) ⚽
45+2'
51'
🟨 M. Bracking
J. Morris ⚽
72'
77'
🟨 F. Edwards
M. Matthews Lewis 🟨
84'
88'
🟨 T. Adelusi
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.
Match Analysis
Hornchurch arrive at this National League fixture with a difficult run, having suffered five straight defeats in their last five away outings, while Fylde have found better stability at home with two wins and a draw from their recent five matches. At this venue, Fylde have scored in four of their last five home games but have managed just one clean sheet during that same period. Fylde rate stronger on form. Over the 4-day comparison window, Fylde's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Hornchurch's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hornchurch losing run
0
Hornchurch points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Fylde
Fylde's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fylde win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Fylde win
Latest market chance 54.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
52.5% → 54.1%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.6% → 23.1%
−0.5 pts
Hornchurch win
Latest market chance 22.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.8% → 22.8%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Fylde
Draw
Hornchurch
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FyldeHornchurch
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
13th
15
Games Played
15
1.73
Points/Game
1.40
1.80
Goals/Game
1.13
1.53
Conceded/Game
1.53
8.0
Shots/Game
8.3
4.9
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Fylde at home (8 matches) vs Hornchurch away (9 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
0.67
1.88
Goals/Game
0.89
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.44
50%
Win Rate
22%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Fylde
Home form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hornchurch
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Fylde and Hornchurch.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Fyldevs
Hornchurch
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 64.6%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.1%→Latest 63.9%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?