Carlisle vs Harrogate Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Brunton Park
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.01
Draw
3.74
Away Win
3.42
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Carlisle
Harrogate
J. Williams (C. Whelan) ⚽
9'
M. Azeez 🟥
14'
K. Richardson 🟨
22'
H. Bunker 🟥
30'
41'
🟨 C. McGuckin
43'
🟨 E. Bristow
C. Whelan (J. Williams) ⚽
46'
54'
🟨 M. Williams
R. Galvin ⚽
61'
63'
🟨 S. Dreyer
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Harrogate stronger
Harrogate rate stronger across every available category. They lead recent form and head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Harrogate stronger.
Leads 2 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Harrogate stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Harrogate stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Harrogate have secured three victories from their last five away outings, while Carlisle have managed just a single win and three draws in that same span at home. Carlisle have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Harrogate rate stronger on form and head-to-head. Harrogate won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 8 March 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Carlisle's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Carlisle's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Harrogate's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Harrogate stronger overall.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Carlisle
Carlisle's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Carlisle win as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Carlisle win
Latest market chance 46.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
45.8% → 46.7%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.3%
±0.0 pts
Harrogate win
Latest market chance 28.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.9% → 28.0%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Carlisle
Draw
Harrogate
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CarlisleHarrogate
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
14
Games Played
14
1.43
Points/Game
2.21
1.79
Goals/Game
2.29
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.29
12.2
Shots/Game
12.3
6.3
Shots on Target
7.3
Home vs Away Context
Carlisle at home (8 matches) vs Harrogate away (8 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.62
2.25
Goals/Game
1.38
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.62
38%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Carlisle
Home form
W
D
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Harrogate
Away form
L
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Carlisle Wins
0
Draws
2
Harrogate Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Harrogate1 – 0Carlisle
Carlisle1 – 1Harrogate
Carlisle0 – 1Harrogate
Harrogate3 – 3Carlisle
Harrogate3 – 0Carlisle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Carlislevs
Harrogate
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.5%→Latest 59.9%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.0%→Latest 61.9%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?