Carlisle vs Boston Utd Head to Head | National League

Match Prediction

Statistical Comparison

Carlisle stronger

Carlisle rate stronger across every available category. They lead recent form and head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Carlisle stronger.

Leads 2 of 2 major categories

How They Compare

Recent Form

Carlisle stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Carlisle stronger

HomeAway

Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.

Match Analysis

Carlisle have secured just one win from their last five home outings, while Boston Utd have managed only a solitary victory in their corresponding away sample of five matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games but have managed to keep a clean sheet in only two of that same recent run. Carlisle rate stronger on form and head-to-head. Carlisle won the most recent meeting 6-2 on 21 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 2 encounters to Boston Utd's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 5.5 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Carlisle's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points, while Boston Utd's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Carlisle stronger overall.

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift away from Carlisle

Carlisle's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Carlisle win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Carlisle win

Latest market chance 63.3%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

65.7% → 63.3%

−2.4 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 20.2%

Steady

Market view unchanged

19.9% → 20.2%

+0.3 pts

Boston Utd win

Latest market chance 16.6%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

14.4% → 16.6%

+2.2 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

13 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Carlisle

Draw

Boston Utd

4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Carlisle

Boston Utd

Season Profile

This season

8th

League Position

19th

Games Played

1.63

Points/Game

1.13

2.00

Goals/Game

1.31

1.44

Conceded/Game

1.81

12.2

Shots/Game

10.3

6.3

Shots on Target

6.0

Home vs Away Context

Carlisle at home (8 matches) vs Boston Utd away (7 matches)

1.50

Points/Game

1.14

2.25

Goals/Game

1.57

1.75

Conceded/Game

2.29

38%

Win Rate

29%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Carlisle

Home form

1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home

1.6

Goals scored
per match

1.6

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Boston Utd

Away form

1W 2D 2L in last 5 away

1.6

Goals scored
per match

2.8

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Carlisle Wins

Draws

Boston Utd Wins

Avg Goals

5.5

2026-03-212025-2026

Carlisle6 – 2Boston Utd

2025-11-222025-2026

Boston Utd1 – 2Carlisle

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Carlisle

Boston Utd

Recent Scoring Profile

1.90

Goals scored / game

1.30

Goals conceded / game

2.10

6/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

7/10

6/10

Both Teams Scored

8/10

2/10

Failed to Score

2/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

84.5%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

68.0%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

48.3%

BTTSBoth teams score

62.2%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 65.3%→Latest 67.3%+2.0 pts

Notable move towards 3+ goals

An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 58.4%→Latest 61.5%+3.1 pts

Strong move towards both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Carlisle vs Boston Utd Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis