Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
BMO Field
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.16
Draw
3.84
Away Win
3.17
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 3
Match Events ?
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Lewis Morgan (Theo Corbeanu) ⚽
26'
45+1'
⚽ (P) Martin Ojeda
Theo Corbeanu (Dániel Sallói) ⚽
49'
Alonso 🟨
66'
Benjamin Kuscevic 🟨
75'
76'
⚽ Antoine Griezmann (Iago Teodoro)
82'
🟨 Vinicius Nogueira
83'
⚽ Daryl Dike (Iván Angulo)
Robin Lucius Fraser 🟨
85'
Matheus Pereira de Souza ⚽
89'
Richie Laryea 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
16
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
5
17
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Toronto FC (4-4-2)
L. Gavran
R. Laryea
Z. Monlouis
B. Kuscevic
Matheus Pereira
T. Corbeanu
Alonso Coello
N. Dorsch
D. Sallói
J. Sargent
L. Morgan
Orlando City SC (4-4-2)
M. Crépeau
E. Atuesta
D. Brekalo
Iago
Vinícius Nogueira
I. Angulo
Luis Otávio
W. Cartagena
Harvey Sarajian
A. Griezmann
M. Ojeda
Player Ratings ?
Toronto FC
T. CorbeanuM8.2
L. MorganF8.1
D. EtienneF6.6
Orlando City SC
A. GriezmannF8.2
D. DikeF7.9
I. AnguloM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Toronto FC edge defence, Orlando City SC edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Orlando City SC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Orlando City SC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Toronto FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Orlando City SC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toronto FC have enjoyed an unbeaten run in their last five home matches with two victories and three draws, whereas Orlando City SC have struggled away from home with just one win and a draw from their last five outings. Toronto FC have found the net in each of their last five home games but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Both Toronto FC and Orlando City SC carry two players unavailable for selection ahead of this MLS fixture. Orlando City SC rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while Toronto FC hold a slight advantage in defence. Orlando City SC won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 13 September 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Toronto FC's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Toronto FC's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points, while Orlando City SC's implied win probability has fallen by 4.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Orlando City SC win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Toronto FC remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Toronto FC win
Latest market chance 43.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
39.9% → 43.4%
+3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.0% → 25.0%
+1.0 pts
Orlando City SC win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
36.1% → 31.6%
−4.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Toronto FC
Draw
Orlando City SC
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Toronto FCOrlando City SC
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
15th
28
Games Played
28
1.14
Points/Game
1.32
1.46
Goals/Game
1.82
1.86
Conceded/Game
2.36
12.1
Shots/Game
12.4
4.4
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Toronto FC at home (17 matches) vs Orlando City SC away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.76
2.12
Goals/Game
1.76
1.94
Conceded/Game
3.29
35%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Toronto FC
Home form
D
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Orlando City SC
Away form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Toronto FC Wins
2
Draws
0
Orlando City SC Wins
3
Avg Goals
4.2
Orlando City SC3 – 0Toronto FC
Toronto FC4 – 2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC4 – 2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1 – 2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1 – 2Toronto FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Toronto FCvs
Orlando City SC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.10
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.0%→Latest 67.3%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 69.9%→Latest 68.4%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Toronto FC's 10 matches and 1 of Orlando City SC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?