Toronto FC vs DC United Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
BMO Field
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.02
Draw
3.76
Away Win
3.43
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Toronto FC
DC United
29'
⚽ Andre Dozzell (Silvan Hefti)
Niklas Dorsch 🟨
33'
Dániel Sallói 🟨
50'
50'
🟨 Kye Rowles
58'
🟨 Kimito Nono
60'
🟨 Jared Stroud
Jonathan Osorio (Josh Sargent) ⚽
64'
Matheus Pereira de Souza 🟨
84'
Josh Sargent ⚽
86'
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
9
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
7
7
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Toronto FC (4-3-3)
L. Gavran
R. Laryea
B. Kuscevic
N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira
J. Osorio
N. Dorsch
D. Mihailović
T. Corbeanu
J. Sargent
D. Sallói
DC United (4-4-2)
S. Johnson
S. Hefti
L. Bartlett
K. Rowles
K. Kurokawa
K. Nono
M. Peltola
A. Dozzell
J. Stroud
Peglow
N. Ordaz
Player Ratings ?
Toronto FC
J. SargentF9.0
J. OsorioM8.1
L. GavranG7.2
DC United
A. DozzellM7.9
L. BartlettD6.7
M. PeltolaM6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Toronto FC edge recent form, attack and defence, DC United edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Toronto FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Toronto FC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Toronto FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
DC United stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toronto FC have secured two victories and three draws from their last five home outings, while DC United have recorded just one draw and four defeats in their corresponding away fixtures over the same period. Toronto FC have found the net in all five of their recent home matches, yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sequence. Both sides carry significant squad concerns with two players listed as out and another two marked as doubtful for each team. Toronto FC rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while DC United rate stronger on head-to-head. DC United won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 26 July 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Toronto FC's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Toronto FC's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points, while DC United's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Toronto FC losing run
1
DC United points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Toronto FC
Toronto FC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Toronto FC win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Toronto FC win
Latest market chance 48.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
46.5% → 48.7%
+2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 24.6%
−0.3 pts
DC United win
Latest market chance 26.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.6% → 26.7%
−1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Toronto FC
Draw
DC United
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Toronto FCDC United
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
27th
31
Games Played
31
1.16
Points/Game
1.06
1.55
Goals/Game
1.23
1.90
Conceded/Game
1.77
12.1
Shots/Game
12.8
4.4
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Toronto FC at home (17 matches) vs DC United away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.76
2.12
Goals/Game
1.12
1.94
Conceded/Game
1.88
35%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Toronto FC
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
DC United
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Toronto FC Wins
1
Draws
2
DC United Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
DC United2 – 1Toronto FC
Toronto FC2 – 0DC United
DC United2 – 2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1 – 3DC United
DC United2 – 2Toronto FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Toronto FCvs
DC United
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.1%→Latest 62.2%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.4%→Latest 63.2%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Toronto FC's 10 matches and 5 of DC United's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?