Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
BMO Field
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.95
Draw
3.93
Away Win
3.65
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
51'
⚽ Daniel Rios
55'
🟨 Brayan Vera
84'
🟨 Brandan Craig
87'
🟨 Luca Petrasso
Lewis Morgan (Niklas Dorsch) ⚽
90+3'
Djordje Mihailovic (Theo Corbeanu) ⚽
90+5'
Richie Laryea 🟨
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
14
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
7
8
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Toronto FC (4-3-3)
L. Gavran
R. Laryea
B. Kuscevic
N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira
J. Osorio
Alonso Coello
N. Dorsch
T. Corbeanu
J. Sargent
D. Sallói
CF Montreal (3-4-2-1)
S. Breza
J. Neal
B. Craig
B. Vera
D. Bugaj
V. Loturi
M. Longstaff
L. Petrasso
D. Ríos
A. Sánchez
P. Owusu
Player Ratings ?
Toronto FC
L. MorganF8.1
D. MihailovićM7.7
W. YarbroughG7.5
CF Montreal
D. RíosM7.4
A. SánchezM6.8
F. HerbersF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Toronto FC edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Toronto FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Toronto FC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Toronto FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toronto FC have secured two wins and three draws from their last five home outings, whereas CF Montreal have recorded just a solitary victory in their last five away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. Toronto FC face one confirmed absence and one doubtful selection, while CF Montreal carry one certain absence alongside three players listed as doubtful for the fixture. Toronto FC rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 17 July 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 1-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
CF Montreal losing run
3
CF Montreal points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 1 day before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Toronto FC win
Latest market chance 48.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
48.9% → 48.9%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 24.8%
+0.2 pts
CF Montreal win
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.3%
−0.2 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Toronto FCCF Montreal
Season Profile
This season
27th
League Position
29th
27
Games Played
27
1.07
Points/Game
0.89
1.44
Goals/Game
1.26
1.89
Conceded/Game
2.00
12.1
Shots/Game
12.4
4.4
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Toronto FC at home (17 matches) vs CF Montreal away (17 matches)
1.59
Points/Game
0.53
2.12
Goals/Game
1.06
1.94
Conceded/Game
2.59
35%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Toronto FC
Home form
W
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
CF Montreal
Away form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Toronto FC Wins
3
Draws
2
CF Montreal Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.2
CF Montreal0 – 0Toronto FC
Toronto FC1 – 1CF Montreal
CF Montreal1 – 6Toronto FC
CF Montreal0 – 1Toronto FC
Toronto FC5 – 1CF Montreal
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Toronto FCvs
CF Montreal
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.00
Goals conceded / game
2.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.9%→Latest 62.2%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.4%→Latest 63.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?