St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Citypark
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.75
Draw
4.28
Away Win
4.02
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
42'
⚽ Kristoffer Velde (Cole Bassett)
45+3'
⚽ David Da Costa (Jímer Fory)
48'
⚽ Kristoffer Velde (David Da Costa)
Daniel Edelman (Carlo Holse) ⚽
58'
62'
🟨 Eric Izoita
71'
🟨 Kamal Miller
84'
🟨 Vincent Janssen
88'
🟨 Ian Smith
Rafael Navarro Leal (Sang-bin Jung) ⚽
90+1'
90+6'
🟥 Kamal Miller
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
13
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
4
15
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
St. Louis City (3-4-1-2)
B. Lundt
L. MacNaughton
T. Baumgartl
D. Polvara
C. Wallem
C. Durkin
D. Edelman
T. Totland
C. Holse
D. Downs
Rafael Navarro
Portland Timbers (4-3-3)
J. Pantemis
R. Hernández
J. Waterman
K. Miller
J. Fory
J. Ortiz
D. Chará
C. Bassett
A. Lassiter
David Pereira da Costa
K. Velde
Player Ratings ?
St. Louis City
C. HolseM7.6
Rafael NavarroF7.5
D. EdelmanM7.3
Portland Timbers
K. VeldeF9.1
David Pereira da CostaF9.0
A. AravenaF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. St. Louis City edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St. Louis City slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St. Louis City have enjoyed an encouraging recent record at home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Portland Timbers have struggled away across that same span with no victories and just two draws to show for their last five matches. The hosts have been active in front of goal at this venue, finding the net in four of their last five home matches but managing only a single clean sheet during that identical period. Squad availability looks tighter for both sides heading into this fixture, with St. Louis City carrying one confirmed absence and three players under doubt alongside Portland Timbers who face four confirmed absences and two further doubts in their own camp. St. Louis City rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 10 September 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, St. Louis City's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Portland Timbers's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
St. Louis City unbeaten run
2
Portland Timbers points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards St. Louis City
St. Louis City's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a St. Louis City win as more likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St. Louis City win
Latest market chance 54.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
52.9% → 54.0%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.7% → 22.3%
−0.4 pts
Portland Timbers win
Latest market chance 23.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.4% → 23.7%
−0.7 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
3 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St. Louis City
Draw
Portland Timbers
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
23rd
31
Games Played
31
1.65
Points/Game
1.19
1.81
Goals/Game
1.74
1.42
Conceded/Game
1.87
13.3
Shots/Game
13.6
4.9
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
St. Louis City at home (17 matches) vs Portland Timbers away (17 matches)
1.82
Points/Game
0.88
2.12
Goals/Game
1.47
1.35
Conceded/Game
1.94
53%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St. Louis City
Home form
D
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3.2
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Portland Timbers
Away form
D
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St. Louis City Wins
1
Draws
3
Portland Timbers Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
2026-09-102026
Portland Timbers2 – 2St. Louis City
2025-07-142025
St. Louis City2 – 1Portland Timbers
2025-06-092025
Portland Timbers2 – 1St. Louis City
2024-08-252024
Portland Timbers4 – 4St. Louis City
2024-06-092024
St. Louis City0 – 0Portland Timbers
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St. Louis City
vs
Portland Timbers
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded / game
2.10
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
85.1%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
67.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
46.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
65.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.3%→Latest 67.4%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.9%→Latest 65.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of St. Louis City's 10 matches and 4 of Portland Timbers's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
Loading poll…