St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Citypark
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.55
Draw
4.90
Away Win
5.13
Match Report
Full Time
6 – 2
Match Events ?
St. Louis City
Los Angeles Galaxy
C. Holse (Rafael Navarro) ⚽
2'
C. Holse (Rafael Navarro) ⚽
7'
C. Holse (C. Durkin) ⚽
21'
32'
⚽ R. Taylor (E. Thommy)
C. Durkin 🟨
40'
Rafael Navarro ⚽ (P)
45'
L. MacNaughton (A. Matan) ⚽
45+7'
Rafael Navarro (C. Durkin) ⚽
53'
C. Wallem 🟨
63'
67'
🟨 J. Aude
71'
⚽ Joao Klauss (M. Reus)
75'
🟨 H. Miller
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
11
Total Shots
18
6
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
2
3
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
St. Louis City (3-4-3)
R. Burki
L. MacNaughton
T. Baumgartl
D. Polvara
C. Wallem
D. Edelman
C. Durkin
T. Totland
C. Holse
Rafael Navarro
A. Matan
Los Angeles Galaxy (4-3-3)
J. Marcinkowski
H. Miller
J. Glesnes
J. Haak
J. Aude
P. Ruiz
S. Roberto
E. Thommy
T. Elgersma
K. Furuhashi
R. Taylor
Player Ratings ?
St. Louis City
Carlo HolseF10.0
Rafael NavarroF10.0
Alexandru MățanF8.5
Los Angeles Galaxy
Robert TaylorF7.6
Marco ReusM7.5
João KlaussF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
St. Louis City
St. Louis City rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving St. Louis City a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St. Louis City have enjoyed a solid run at home with three victories and two draws from their last five outings, while Los Angeles Galaxy have struggled on the road with only one win and one draw in that same span. At home, St. Louis City have scored in every single game of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Both squads carry minor injury concerns ahead of the clash, with two players unavailable for each side and one Los Angeles Galaxy forward listed as doubtful. St. Louis City rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. St. Louis City won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 23 July 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Los Angeles Galaxy's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, St. Louis City's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points, while Los Angeles Galaxy's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives St. Louis City a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards St. Louis City
St. Louis City's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a St. Louis City win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St. Louis City win
Latest market chance 61.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
58.0% → 61.6%
+3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
21.2% → 20.0%
−1.2 pts
Los Angeles Galaxy win
Latest market chance 18.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
20.8% → 18.4%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St. Louis City
Draw
Los Angeles Galaxy
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St. Louis CityLos Angeles Galaxy
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
17th
27
Games Played
28
1.74
Points/Game
1.29
1.78
Goals/Game
1.32
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.57
13.3
Shots/Game
13.1
4.9
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
St. Louis City at home (17 matches) vs Los Angeles Galaxy away (17 matches)
1.82
Points/Game
1.00
2.12
Goals/Game
1.41
1.35
Conceded/Game
2.12
53%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St. Louis City
Home form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Los Angeles Galaxy
Away form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St. Louis City Wins
3
Draws
2
Los Angeles Galaxy Wins
0
Avg Goals
4.4
Los Angeles Galaxy1 – 3St. Louis City
St. Louis City3 – 3Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy0 – 3St. Louis City
St. Louis City2 – 1Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy3 – 3St. Louis City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St. Louis Cityvs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.3%→Latest 68.7%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 63.9%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?