San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Avaya Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 03:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.65
Draw
3.85
Away Win
1.93
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
San Jose Earthquakes
Nashville SC
28'
🟨 Shakur Mohammed
34'
⚽ Hany Mukhtar
Beau Leroux 🟨
39'
Preston Judd 🟨
45+3'
Preston Judd (Eduard Löwen) ⚽
70'
Ian Harkes 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
14
Total Shots
6
2
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
0
11
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
San Jose Earthquakes (5-3-2)
A. Gunn
Jack Jasinski
D. Munie
D. Romney
R. Roberts
J. Ricketts
Beau Leroux
R. Vieira
E. Löwen
P. Judd
T. Werner
Nashville SC (4-2-3-1)
B. Schwake
A. Najar
J. Palacios
M. Woledzi
D. Lovitz
P. Yazbek
M. Corcoran
C. Espinoza
H. Mukhtar
S. Mohammed
S. Surridge
Player Ratings ?
San Jose Earthquakes
P. JuddF7.6
J. RickettsD7.1
R. RobertsD6.8
Nashville SC
H. MukhtarM7.8
D. LovitzD7.5
M. WoledziD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Nashville SC edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nashville SC have secured two wins from their last five away fixtures, while San Jose Earthquakes have recorded two victories in their corresponding home sample. San Jose Earthquakes have found the net in five of their last five home matches but have conceded goals in four of those same outings. The Earthquakes face seven potential absences, whereas Nashville SC will be without one player with another listed as doubtful. Nashville SC rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 April 2024, ended level, with 4 of the last 4 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, San Jose Earthquakes's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Nashville SC's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
San Jose Earthquakes unbeaten run
46%
Nashville SC yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a San Jose Earthquakes win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Nashville SC remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
San Jose Earthquakes win
Latest market chance 26.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.6% → 26.5%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.7% → 24.7%
±0.0 pts
Nashville SC win
Latest market chance 48.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
46.8% → 48.8%
+2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
San Jose Earthquakes
Draw
Nashville SC
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
San Jose EarthquakesNashville SC
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
1st
29
Games Played
29
1.62
Points/Game
2.28
1.76
Goals/Game
2.17
1.41
Conceded/Game
0.76
13.3
Shots/Game
12.9
4.9
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
San Jose Earthquakes at home (17 matches) vs Nashville SC away (17 matches)
1.53
Points/Game
1.76
1.76
Goals/Game
1.35
1.53
Conceded/Game
0.65
41%
Win Rate
47%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
San Jose Earthquakes
Home form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nashville SC
Away form
W
D
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
San Jose Earthquakes Wins
0
Draws
4
Nashville SC Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Nashville SC1 – 1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1 – 1Nashville SC
Nashville SC0 – 0San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes2 – 2Nashville SC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
San Jose Earthquakesvs
Nashville SC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.1%→Latest 61.5%−3.6 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.1%→Latest 63.8%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of San Jose Earthquakes's 10 matches and 2 of Nashville SC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?