San Diego vs Houston Dynamo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Snapdragon Stadium
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 03:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.06
Draw
3.79
Away Win
3.53
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 3
Match Events ?
San Diego
Houston Dynamo
4'
🟨 Lawrence Ennali
19'
🟨 Jonathan Bond
Anders Dreyer ⚽ (P)
20'
Cédric Bakambu (Onni Valakari) ⚽
22'
24'
⚽ Guilherme Augusto (Lawrence Ennali)
33'
⚽ Mateusz Bogusz (Guilherme Augusto)
37'
⚽ Guilherme Augusto
44'
🟨 Guilherme Augusto
kieran sargeant 🟨
53'
Anders Dreyer 🟨
77'
Aníbal Godoy 🟨
79'
Gabriel Pirani ⚽
86'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
17
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
3
10
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
San Diego (4-3-3)
C. dos Santos
D. Þórhallsson
C. McVey
M. Duah
Kieran Sargeant
A. Alvarado
J. Tverskov
O. Valakari
A. Dreyer
C. Bakambu
E. Achouri
Houston Dynamo (4-2-3-1)
J. Bond
L. Ennali
Antônio Carlos
Lucas Halter
F. Negri
Artur
H. Herrera
M. Bogusz
A. Bouzat
Guilherme
L. Foster
Player Ratings ?
San Diego
C. BakambuF7.9
Gabriel PiraniM7.4
A. DreyerF7.2
Houston Dynamo
GuilhermeM8.9
Antônio CarlosD6.9
L. FosterF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. San Diego edge attack, Houston Dynamo edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Houston Dynamo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
San Diego stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Houston Dynamo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Houston Dynamo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
San Diego enter at home with three wins from their last five outings, while Houston Dynamo have managed just a single victory in that same away sample. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home and have also kept two clean sheets during that period. San Diego face one confirmed absence, whereas Houston Dynamo carry two certain absences alongside one player listed as doubtful. Houston Dynamo rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while San Diego rate stronger on attack. Houston Dynamo won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 23 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 3 encounters to San Diego's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.67 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, San Diego's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Houston Dynamo's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Houston Dynamo unbeaten run
2/3
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from San Diego
San Diego's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a San Diego win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
San Diego win
Latest market chance 46.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
48.7% → 46.6%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.9% → 25.7%
+0.8 pts
Houston Dynamo win
Latest market chance 27.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.4% → 27.7%
+1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
San Diego
Draw
Houston Dynamo
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
San DiegoHouston Dynamo
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
10th
28
Games Played
28
1.14
Points/Game
1.61
1.71
Goals/Game
1.29
1.82
Conceded/Game
1.21
12.6
Shots/Game
12.8
4.6
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
San Diego at home (17 matches) vs Houston Dynamo away (17 matches)
1.35
Points/Game
1.29
2.18
Goals/Game
1.41
1.76
Conceded/Game
1.65
35%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
San Diego
Home form
W
W
W
L
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Houston Dynamo
Away form
W
L
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
San Diego Wins
1
Draws
0
Houston Dynamo Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.7
Houston Dynamo1 – 0San Diego
Houston Dynamo2 – 4San Diego
San Diego3 – 4Houston Dynamo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
San Diegovs
Houston Dynamo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 57.1%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.2%→Latest 59.5%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of San Diego's 10 matches and 1 of Houston Dynamo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?