Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Rio Tinto Stadium
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 02:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.99
Draw
4.01
Away Win
3.52
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes
Luc De Fougerolles (Juan Sanabria) ⚽
79'
Ariath Piol 🟨
90+1'
90+4'
⚽ Jack Jasinski
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
22
Total Shots
16
8
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Real Salt Lake (3-4-2-1)
Rafael Cabral
L. De Fougerolles
P. Quinton
K. Henry
D. Marczuk
N. Caliskan
S. Spierings
J. Sanabria
M. Guilavogui
S. Lobzhanidze
S. Solans
San Jose Earthquakes (5-3-2)
A. Gunn
P. Marie
M. Floriani
D. Romney
R. Roberts
J. Ricketts
I. Harkes
N. Fernandez
Beau Leroux
P. Judd
O. Bouda
Player Ratings ?
Real Salt Lake
L. De FougerollesD7.8
J. SanabriaM7.7
N. CaliskanM7.2
San Jose Earthquakes
Jack JasinskiD8.1
A. GunnG7.5
M. FlorianiD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes rate stronger in recent form and defence; Real Salt Lake edge head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving San Jose Earthquakes a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
San Jose Earthquakes slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Salt Lake slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
San Jose Earthquakes have recorded just one victory in their last five away outings, while Real Salt Lake sit with a solitary win and three defeats from their home fixtures over the same span. At home, Real Salt Lake have found the net in three of their last five matches but have managed only a single clean sheet during that identical period. Real Salt Lake face a significant absence list with five players unavailable and one doubtful, whereas San Jose Earthquakes have seven confirmed out without any doubts attached to their squad. San Jose Earthquakes rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Real Salt Lake hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Real Salt Lake won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 27 July 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to San Jose Earthquakes's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Real Salt Lake's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points, while San Jose Earthquakes's implied win probability has risen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives San Jose Earthquakes a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
San Jose Earthquakes unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Real Salt Lake win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Real Salt Lake win
Latest market chance 49.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
52.9% → 49.2%
−3.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 24.0%
+0.6 pts
San Jose Earthquakes win
Latest market chance 26.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
23.6% → 26.8%
+3.2 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+6+30−3Oct 9Oct 11Oct 12Oct 13Oct 15
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Real Salt Lake
Draw
San Jose Earthquakes
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
8th
28
Games Played
28
1.14
Points/Game
1.64
1.46
Goals/Game
1.79
1.64
Conceded/Game
1.43
14.5
Shots/Game
13.3
5.5
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Real Salt Lake at home (17 matches) vs San Jose Earthquakes away (17 matches)
1.94
Points/Game
1.53
1.94
Goals/Game
1.59
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.47
59%
Win Rate
41%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Real Salt Lake
Home form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
San Jose Earthquakes
Away form
L
D
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Real Salt Lake Wins
2
Draws
0
San Jose Earthquakes Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
2025-07-272025
Real Salt Lake2 – 1San Jose Earthquakes
2025-02-232025
San Jose Earthquakes4 – 0Real Salt Lake
2024-10-062024
San Jose Earthquakes0 – 1Real Salt Lake
2024-08-252024
Real Salt Lake0 – 2San Jose Earthquakes
2023-09-172023
San Jose Earthquakes2 – 1Real Salt Lake
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Real Salt Lake
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
84.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
65.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
44.3%
BTTSBoth teams score
64.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.1%→Latest 64.6%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 64.6%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Real Salt Lake's 10 matches and 1 of San Jose Earthquakes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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