Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Talen Energy Stadium
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.43
Draw
5.31
Away Win
6.20
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
Cavan Sullivan (Indiana Vassilev) ⚽
28'
Quinn Sullivan ⚽ (P)
41'
Jovan Lukic 🟨
45'
45+7'
⚽ Josh Sargent (Djordje Mihailovic)
Cavan Sullivan (Quinn Sullivan) ⚽
58'
67'
🟨 Jonathan Osorio
Bruno Damiani ⚽ (P)
73'
Benjamin Bender 🟨
87'
90+3'
🟨 Emilio Aristizábal
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
19
Total Shots
6
9
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
1
15
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Philadelphia Union (4-4-2)
A. Blake
F. Westfield
Neil Pierre
N. Harriel
K. Wagner
Cavan Sullivan
D. Jean-Jacques
J. Lukić
I. Vassilev
B. Damiani
Q. Sullivan
Toronto FC (4-2-3-1)
W. Yarbrough
R. Laryea
J. Gilman
Z. Monlouis
R. Chukwu
J. Osorio
M. Cimermancic
A. Piedrahita
D. Mihailović
L. Morgan
J. Sargent
Player Ratings ?
Philadelphia Union
Cavan SullivanM8.2
Q. SullivanF7.7
B. DamianiF7.4
Toronto FC
J. SargentF7.4
R. LaryeaD6.6
W. YarbroughG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Philadelphia Union a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Philadelphia Union slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Philadelphia Union have secured three wins and a draw from their last five home outings, while Toronto FC manage just a solitary victory in that same span away from home. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five matches at home but have only kept a clean sheet once during that identical period. Philadelphia Union rate stronger on form, attack and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 23 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Philadelphia Union's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Toronto FC's implied win probability has fallen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Philadelphia Union a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
8
Philadelphia Union unbeaten run
3
Toronto FC points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Philadelphia Union win as more likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Philadelphia Union win
Latest market chance 65.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
64.8% → 65.6%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.1% → 18.7%
−0.4 pts
Toronto FC win
Latest market chance 15.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.1% → 15.7%
−0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Philadelphia Union
Draw
Toronto FC
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Philadelphia UnionToronto FC
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
23rd
33
Games Played
33
1.42
Points/Game
1.18
1.88
Goals/Game
1.55
1.55
Conceded/Game
1.91
16.6
Shots/Game
12.1
5.5
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Philadelphia Union at home (17 matches) vs Toronto FC away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
0.71
1.88
Goals/Game
0.94
1.12
Conceded/Game
2.00
47%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Philadelphia Union
Home form
W
W
W
D
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toronto FC
Away form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Philadelphia Union Wins
1
Draws
3
Toronto FC Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Toronto FC3 – 3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1 – 1Toronto FC
Toronto FC1 – 2Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC2 – 1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union0 – 0Toronto FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Philadelphia Unionvs
Toronto FC
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.1%→Latest 69.5%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.3%→Latest 61.9%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Philadelphia Union's 10 matches and 6 of Toronto FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?