Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Talen Energy Stadium
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.39
Draw
5.51
Away Win
6.98
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Danley Jean Jacques 🟨
2'
13'
🟨 DeAndre Yedlin
Francis Westfield 🟨
23'
Bruno Damiani (Francis Westfield) ⚽
31'
62'
🟨 Dominik Marczuk
Jesus Bueno 🟨
80'
Milan Iloski (Cavan Sullivan) ⚽
81'
Bruno Damiani 🟨
89'
90+6'
⚽ Saba Lobjanidze (Luc De Fougerolles)
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
3
21
Fouls
13
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Philadelphia Union (4-4-2)
A. Blake
F. Westfield
Neil Pierre
N. Harriel
K. Wagner
Cavan Sullivan
D. Jean-Jacques
J. Lukić
I. Vassilev
M. Iloski
B. Damiani
Real Salt Lake (3-4-2-1)
Rafael Cabral
D. Yedlin
P. Quinton
K. Henry
D. Marczuk
N. Caliskan
S. Spierings
S. Junqua
A. Hezarkhani
M. Guilavogui
S. Solans
Player Ratings ?
Philadelphia Union
M. IloskiF8.1
B. DamianiF7.9
Cavan SullivanM7.4
Real Salt Lake
S. LobzhanidzeF7.6
Rafael CabralG6.8
S. SpieringsM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Real Salt Lake edge head-to-head, giving Philadelphia Union an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Salt Lake stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Salt Lake arrive at this fixture with a poor away record of just one draw and four defeats from their last five outings, while the Philadelphia Union boast an impressive unbeaten run comprising four wins and a solitary draw in the same span at home. Philadelphia have found the net in five of their last five matches at home but have kept just two clean sheets in that identical sample. Philadelphia Union face one doubtful player with no confirmed absences, whereas Real Salt Lake carry three confirmed out-counts alongside six additional doubts. Philadelphia Union rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Real Salt Lake rate stronger on head-to-head. Real Salt Lake won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 28 April 2024, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Philadelphia Union's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Philadelphia Union's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Real Salt Lake's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Philadelphia Union.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Philadelphia Union losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Real Salt Lake points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Philadelphia Union win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Philadelphia Union win
Latest market chance 67.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
65.8% → 67.3%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.0% → 18.5%
−0.5 pts
Real Salt Lake win
Latest market chance 14.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
15.2% → 14.1%
−1.1 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
22nd
27
Games Played
27
1.44
Points/Game
1.19
2.00
Goals/Game
1.48
1.63
Conceded/Game
1.63
16.6
Shots/Game
14.5
5.5
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Philadelphia Union at home (17 matches) vs Real Salt Lake away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
0.71
1.88
Goals/Game
1.18
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.76
47%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Philadelphia Union
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
3.2
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Real Salt Lake
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Philadelphia Union Wins
1
Draws
0
Real Salt Lake Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.2
2024-04-282024
Philadelphia Union1 – 2Real Salt Lake
2019-07-142019
Real Salt Lake4 – 0Philadelphia Union
2018-05-202018
Philadelphia Union4 – 1Real Salt Lake
2017-05-282017
Real Salt Lake1 – 0Philadelphia Union
2016-08-012016
Philadelphia Union1 – 2Real Salt Lake
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Philadelphia Union
vs
Real Salt Lake
Recent Scoring Profile
3.20
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
85.5%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
67.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
47.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
60.2%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.1%→Latest 67.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 60.2%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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