Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Exploria Stadium
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.14
Draw
4.02
Away Win
2.99
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
18'
⚽ Alonso Martinez (Hannes Wolf)
Antoine Griezmann (Martin Ojeda) ⚽
32'
Vinicius Nogueira 🟨
38'
44'
🟨 James Sands
Martin Ojeda (Vinicius Nogueira) ⚽
49'
Iago Teodoro 🟨
63'
Wilder Cartagena 🟨
78'
81'
• Talles Magno
Eduard Atuesta 🟨
86'
90+9'
⚽ Jonathan Shore (James Sands)
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
10
Total Shots
17
4
Shots on Goal
7
3
Corner Kicks
9
16
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Orlando City SC (4-2-3-1)
M. Crépeau
I. Angulo
D. Brekalo
Iago
Vinícius Nogueira
B. Ojeda
W. Cartagena
Justin Ellis
E. Atuesta
M. Ojeda
A. Griezmann
New York City FC (4-2-3-1)
M. Freese
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
J. Sands
K. O'Toole
A. O'Neill
A. Perea
A. Ojeda
N. Fernández Mercau
H. Wolf
A. Martínez
Player Ratings ?
Orlando City SC
M. OjedaM8.9
A. GriezmannF8.2
M. CrépeauG7.8
New York City FC
A. MartínezF7.6
H. WolfM7.4
N. Fernández MercauM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Orlando City SC edge recent form and attack, New York City FC edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Orlando City SC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Orlando City SC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
New York City FC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
New York City FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Orlando City SC have secured five straight victories in their last five home outings, while New York City FC have recorded just one win from their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in every single one of their last five home matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that same period. Both squads carry significant injury concerns ahead of the match, with Orlando City SC facing two confirmed out and three doubtful players, while New York City FC have three out and two doubtful. Orlando City SC rate stronger on form and attack, while New York City FC rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. New York City FC won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 7 March 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Orlando City SC's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Orlando City SC's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points, while New York City FC's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Orlando City SC losing run
15
Orlando City SC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Orlando City SC win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Orlando City SC win
Latest market chance 44.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
40.6% → 44.0%
+3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.5% → 23.8%
−0.7 pts
New York City FC win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.8% → 32.2%
−2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Orlando City SC
Draw
New York City FC
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Orlando City SCNew York City FC
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
22nd
30
Games Played
30
1.37
Points/Game
1.13
1.93
Goals/Game
1.43
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.37
12.4
Shots/Game
11.9
5.1
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Orlando City SC at home (17 matches) vs New York City FC away (17 matches)
1.94
Points/Game
1.24
1.94
Goals/Game
1.12
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.24
59%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Orlando City SC
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
New York City FC
Away form
D
W
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Orlando City SC Wins
0
Draws
1
New York City FC Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.8
New York City FC5 – 0Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1 – 2New York City FC
New York City FC2 – 1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1 – 1New York City FC
New York City FC4 – 2Orlando City SC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Orlando City SCvs
New York City FC
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.20
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.6%→Latest 67.1%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.7%→Latest 67.6%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Orlando City SC's 10 matches and 3 of New York City FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?