New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.05
Draw
4.01
Away Win
3.30
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
3'
⚽ (OG) Justin Che
52'
🟨 Zane Monlouis
67'
🟨 Lewis Morgan
82'
⚽ Dániel Sallói (Jonathan Osorio)
87'
🟨 Derrick Etienne Jr.
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
15
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
1
14
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
E. Horvath
D. Nealis
J. Che
J. Bazán
D. Padelford
R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti
M. Sofo
C. Harper
J. Hall
C. Cowell
Toronto FC (4-4-2)
L. Gavran
K. Franklin
Z. Monlouis
N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira
T. Corbeanu
J. Osorio
N. Dorsch
D. Mihailović
J. Sargent
L. Morgan
Player Ratings ?
New York Red Bulls
J. BazánD6.9
E. HorvathG6.8
J. RuvalcabaF6.7
Toronto FC
J. OsorioM7.5
D. SallóiF7.3
Matheus PereiraD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. New York Red Bulls edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
New York Red Bulls stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
New York Red Bulls stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toronto FC have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away outings, while New York Red Bulls mirror that record with a single victory and a solitary draw from their last five home matches. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. New York Red Bulls face one confirmed absence, whereas Toronto FC must manage two players who are unavailable for selection. New York Red Bulls rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 14 March 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, New York Red Bulls's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points, while Toronto FC's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a New York Red Bulls win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
New York Red Bulls win
Latest market chance 46.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
44.5% → 46.8%
+2.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.5% → 23.9%
−0.6 pts
Toronto FC win
Latest market chance 29.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
31.0% → 29.3%
−1.7 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+2.5+1.250−1.25Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 16Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
New York Red Bulls
Draw
Toronto FC
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
24th
29
Games Played
29
1.24
Points/Game
1.14
1.34
Goals/Game
1.52
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.90
14.3
Shots/Game
12.1
5.1
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
New York Red Bulls at home (17 matches) vs Toronto FC away (17 matches)
1.41
Points/Game
0.71
1.59
Goals/Game
0.94
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.00
41%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
New York Red Bulls
Home form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Toronto FC
Away form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
New York Red Bulls Wins
3
Draws
2
Toronto FC Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
2026-03-142026
Toronto FC1 – 1New York Red Bulls
2025-06-262025
Toronto FC1 – 1New York Red Bulls
2025-03-222025
New York Red Bulls2 – 1Toronto FC
2024-10-032024
Toronto FC1 – 4New York Red Bulls
2024-06-232024
New York Red Bulls3 – 0Toronto FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
New York Red Bulls
vs
Toronto FC
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.20
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
84.5%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
66.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
46.4%
BTTSBoth teams score
67.1%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.9%→Latest 66.5%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 16Oct 17
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.7%→Latest 67.1%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of New York Red Bulls's 10 matches and 2 of Toronto FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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