New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.61
Draw
3.91
Away Win
2.50
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
New York Red Bulls
San Diego
Julian Hall (Jorge Ruvalcaba) ⚽
15'
Devin Padelford (Cade Cowell) ⚽
20'
Jorge Ruvalcaba (Ronald Donkor) ⚽
27'
30'
🟨 Jeppe Tverskov
Julian Bazan 🟨
42'
44'
• Anders Dreyer
55'
🟨 Manu Duah
60'
⚽ Cédric Bakambu (Anders Dreyer)
Devin Padelford 🟨
82'
85'
🟨 kieran sargeant
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (Matthew Dos Santos) ⚽
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
28
Total Shots
14
12
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
7
20
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
E. Horvath
D. Nealis
J. Che
J. Bazán
D. Padelford
R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti
M. Sofo
J. Ruvalcaba
J. Hall
C. Cowell
San Diego (4-3-3)
C. dos Santos
O. Verhoeven
M. Duah
I. Murphy
Kieran Sargeant
A. Godoy
J. Tverskov
Gabriel Pirani
A. Dreyer
M. Ingvartsen
E. Achouri
Player Ratings ?
New York Red Bulls
J. RuvalcabaF9.0
J. HallF8.2
E. Choupo-MotingF8.2
San Diego
A. DreyerF7.7
C. BakambuF7.5
M. IngvartsenF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. New York Red Bulls edge recent form and defence, San Diego edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
New York Red Bulls slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
San Diego stronger
HomeAway
Defence
New York Red Bulls slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
In their last five away outings, San Diego have managed just one win alongside two draws and two defeats, while the Red Bulls have struggled at home with only a single victory from five matches that included three losses. New York have scored in three of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same five encounters. The Red Bulls face one confirmed absence and three doubtful players, whereas San Diego have no confirmed absences though they also carry three doubtful names for the match. New York Red Bulls hold a slight advantage in form and defence, while San Diego rate stronger on attack. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
New York Red Bulls win
Latest market chance 36.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.8% → 36.9%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.7% → 24.6%
−0.1 pts
San Diego win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.5% → 38.5%
±0.0 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
New York Red BullsSan Diego

Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
20th
27
Games Played
27
1.22
Points/Game
1.19
1.26
Goals/Game
1.74
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.74
14.3
Shots/Game
12.6
5.1
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
New York Red Bulls at home (17 matches) vs San Diego away (17 matches)
1.41
Points/Game
0.88
1.59
Goals/Game
1.18
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.94
41%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

New York Red Bulls
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

San Diego
Away form
W
L
L
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between New York Red Bulls and San Diego.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
New York Red Bullsvs
San Diego

Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.7%→Latest 67.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 68.8%→Latest 68.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?