New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.55
Draw
4.46
Away Win
1.83
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
Carlos Henrique Casimiro ⚽ (OG)
7'
Julian Bazan 🟨
80'
Emil Forsberg (Cameron Harper) ⚽
90+1'
90+4'
🟨 Santiago Morales
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
19
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
5
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
E. Horvath
D. Nealis
T. Parker
J. Bazán
D. Padelford
R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti
M. Sofo
C. Cowell
J. Hall
J. Ruvalcaba
Inter Miami (4-3-3)
D. St. Clair
G. Luján
Casemiro
Micael
Reguilón
R. De Paul
D. Ayala
M. Galarza
Riquelme Fillipi
L. Suárez
G. Berterame
Player Ratings ?
New York Red Bulls
E. ForsbergM7.7
T. ParkerD7.5
D. NealisD7.3
Inter Miami
D. St. ClairG7.3
R. De PaulM7.2
ReguilónD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Inter Miami
Inter Miami rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Inter Miami a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Inter Miami stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inter Miami stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Inter Miami slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Inter Miami stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
New York Red Bulls have struggled at home with just one win from their last five outings, while Inter Miami sit on a mixed record away from home with one victory in that same span. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches at this venue but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. New York Red Bulls face one confirmed absence ahead of the clash, whereas Inter Miami will be without two players with one additional squad member listed as doubtful. Inter Miami rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 12 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 5.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, New York Red Bulls's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Inter Miami's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Inter Miami a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Inter Miami
Inter Miami's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Inter Miami win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
New York Red Bulls win
Latest market chance 27.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.8% → 27.5%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.3% → 21.7%
−0.6 pts
Inter Miami win
Latest market chance 50.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
48.9% → 50.8%
+1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
New York Red Bulls
Draw
Inter Miami
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
New York Red BullsInter Miami
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
3rd
30
Games Played
30
1.20
Points/Game
1.83
1.30
Goals/Game
2.43
1.87
Conceded/Game
1.70
14.3
Shots/Game
14.9
5.1
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
New York Red Bulls at home (17 matches) vs Inter Miami away (17 matches)
1.41
Points/Game
1.94
1.59
Goals/Game
2.00
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.65
41%
Win Rate
59%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
New York Red Bulls
Home form
D
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Inter Miami
Away form
L
D
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
New York Red Bulls Wins
1
Draws
1
Inter Miami Wins
3
Avg Goals
5.4
Inter Miami2 – 2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls1 – 5Inter Miami
Inter Miami4 – 1New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami6 – 2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls4 – 0Inter Miami
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
New York Red Bullsvs
Inter Miami
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.50
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 74.8%→Latest 75.1%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 73.7%→Latest 73.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of New York Red Bulls's 10 matches and 3 of Inter Miami's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?